Alabama (13-0) 21.35
Auburn (9-3) 14.475
LSU (8-4) 13.4
Mississippi State (7-5) 12.563
Arkansas (8-4) 9.835
Ole Miss (4-8/5-7) 9
Florida (11-2) 15.033
South Carolina (6-6) 10.2
Georgia (8-4) 8.811
Tennessee (5-7) 7.286
Kentucky (7-5) 6.853
Vanderbilt (2-10) -1.975
*Conference Championships are included in projections.
*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.
This is the second set of the Burnette Power Rankings called the Preseason Momentum Rankings. This type of ranking is for preseason only and will be done again next year. I did not include the formula or process of the ranking due to its complexity and I plan to add further to it next year. However, the factors that determine the team’s Momentum score and projected record include:
· Five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed.
· Schedule Strength including home and away games.
· Recruiting during the offseason.
· Returning starters and returning quarterback.
· Coaches leaving (only successful coaches that left for desired positions or necessity are factored in but retirement does not qualify.)
The five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed are the most significant factors. I found in my extensive research of the last five college football seasons’ data that recruiting is a much more significant factor than returning starters or returning quarterbacks. Next year, I plan to do more research to see the effects of the coaching carousel. However, I noticed that the most glaring impact of a coaching change is if a coach leaves a program for a better job such as Brian Kelly did when leaving Cincinnati to go to Notre Dame. The Bearcats went from being 12-0 with Kelly in 2009 to 4-8 in 2010 without him.
This blog I just posted the SEC conference and I will post the other BCS conferences this weekend. I will also try to get some of the non BCS teams posted before the season starts. The first thing you may notice is that some teams have a higher Momentum score than teams with a better projected record. The projected record takes into account home, away, and neutral site scores that I developed. Also, teams may have a negative Momentum score as in Vanderbilt.
This is a non-bias formula ranking. For example, if I went by my own bias then I would have projected Arkansas with at least 10 or more wins since they are my favorite team, but they are projected at 8-4. However, from my analysis three of their four projected losses are close and any team from the SEC with a score above eight could have a chance to play in the BCS championship. Auburn came out of no where last season to win it. Overall, there were many closely projected games in the SEC. Ole Miss' record has two different projections due to their game with BYU being projected as a tie. Alabama is the only strong favorite. A couple of wins for Florida are projected to be very close and the same with a couple of the losses for LSU. The two big out of conference games in week one for the SEC in Boise State vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. LSU are both projected losses for the SEC.