Projections for rankings beginning week 13:
BCS Projected Top Five
1. Kansas State
3. Notre Dame
*If favorites win.
Oregon will gain some on Kansas State, but not enough to overtake the number one spot unless the Wildcats have an unimpressive performance or a loss while the Ducks keep dominating. They are currently .0177 apart, but that should narrow some after this week.
Notre Dame is only .0101 behind Oregon in the BCS Standings; however, it does not look like they can jump to two unless a loss is accumulated by the Ducks or the Irish rack up some major late-season style points in the human polls.
Alabama and Georgia each have worthless games this weekend with both playing non-FBS teams. The Tide and Bulldogs need two of the top three to lose in order to help ensure the SEC another trip to the BCS National Championship. In the realm of college football, it is definitely possible, but right now, the SEC teams are on the outside looking in.
BCS beware, Louisiana Tech has a chance at being a Buster. There are two ways the Bulldogs could land in a BCS Bowl- by finishing in the top 12 of the final standings or if they finish in the top 16 as the WAC champion and higher than an AQ conference champion. La Tech has a shot at being ranked higher than a Big East or Big Ten champion in the final BCS Standings before the bowls. The remaining opponents for the Bulldogs have a combined record of 16-4. Louisville currently has a .0248 lead on Louisiana Tech in the BCS so it will be a challenge.
"I think if we win out, we'll have a shot," said Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes, "I think we're going to need to point out to some people... the schedule we've played and the teams we've played." (USA Today)
There are various scenarios to determine the Big East Champion, but right now, Louisville is the highest ranked Big East school in the BCS and Rutgers has the best conference record. Louisville at Rutgers on Nov 29 looks like the most likely route for the Big East Championship unless a lot of losses occur. Cincinnati is favored to win against Rutgers this weekend so it could come down to a tiebreaker between multiple teams.
In the Big Ten, Nebraska leads the Legends and Michigan still has a chance to win the division if the Cornhuskers lose. Wisconsin has already secured the Leaders division and a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
The MAC could eventually have two teams in either the BCS or AP Top 25 rankings. Last week, Northern Illinois was on the bubble to break the BCS Top 25, but came up a little short. Instead, fellow conference foe Kent State broke the AP Top 25. The Huskies are still one of the first teams out of the BCS and AP rankings. If each team wins their final games, they could both be ranked for the MAC Championship.
Depending on weekend results, I may post updates of projections before the official BCS Standings come out and sometime after the Coaches Poll noon release time. Updates will be listed below in this post or you can bookmark the Projections page.
***Update Nov 18 Sunday 12:25 AM ET***
Projected BCS Top Five :1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Oregon*. *LSU and Kansas State on the bubble to be ranked at number five. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 18 Sunday 1:24 AM ET***
ESPN Brad Edwards' BCS Top Five Projections: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Kansas State. I do not think Kansas State will be ranked fifth in the BCS, but we will know more when the human polls come out. Saturday was only the third time in BCS history that the top two teams lost in the same week. The other two times were in 2007. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 18 Sunday 2:46 PM ET***
Official USA Today Coaches Poll Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Oregon, and 5 Florida State. Official AP Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Ohio State, and 5 Oregon. CBS Sports Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Oregon. Palm's are the same as what I projected last night. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 18 Sunday 8:44 PM ET***
Official BCS Top Five: 1 Notre Dame .997, 2 Alabama .933, 3, Georgia .876, 4 Florida .843, and 5 Oregon .832. Same top five as what I projected. ESPN Brad Edwards was off on his projections last night. Here is the full updated post with more information.
Follow College Football Universe late Saturday nights and early Sunday mornings for projections before the official polls are released.
Brian Cornelius Shapiro aka BCS
Now, I know why BCS projections are hard to figure out!
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2012 Schedule & Results
Date, Result, Opponent
Sat Sept 8, W 56-49, at Houston
Sat Sept 15, W 56-37, Rice
Sat Sept 22, W 52-24, at Illinois
Sat Sept 29, W 44-38, at Virginia
Sat Oct 6, W 58-31, UNLV
Sat Oct 13, L 59-57, Texas A&M
Sat Oct 20, W 70-28, Idaho
Sat Oct 27, W 28-14, at New Mexico State
Sat Nov 3, W 51-27, UTSA
Sat Nov 10, W 62-55, at Texas State
Sat Nov 17, Utah State
Sat Nov 24 at San Jose State
Totals: 53.4 ppg (2nd) & 36.2 papg (111th)
Important games this weekend with BCS ranking and USA Today point spread:
1 Kansas State at Baylor, Wildcats by 10
13 Stanford at 2 Oregon, Ducks by 24
Wake Forest at 3 Notre Dame, Fighting Irish by 22
Western Carolina at 4 Alabama, No line
Georgia Southern at 5 Georgia, No line
Minnesota at 14 Nebraska, Cornhuskers by 19
Utah State at 20 Louisiana Tech, Bulldogs by 3
Iowa at 21 Michigan, Wolverines by 16.5
22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, Bearcats by 6.5
Ohio State at Wisconsin, Badgers by 2.5
Current Sagarin BCS Top Five
1. Notre Dame 101.54
2. Kansas State 101.30
3. Florida 97.24
4. Georgia 95.40
5. Oregon 95.18
9. Alabama 93.09
19. Nebraska 84.63
21. Michigan 82.66
30. Louisiana Tech 77.78
32. Wisconsin 76.77
38. Rutgers 75.45
42. Louisville 74.39
Current BCS Top Five
1. Kansas State .9674
2. Oregon .9497
3. Notre Dame .9396
4. Alabama .8534
5. Georgia .8328
14. Nebraska .4679
19. Louisville .2159
20. Louisiana Tech .1911
21. Michigan .1665
22. Rutgers .1559
Current USA Today Coaches Poll Top Five
1. Oregon (44) 1,460
2. Kansas State (14) 1,427
3. Notre Dame (1) 1,347
4. Georgia 1,260
5. Alabama 1,243
14. Nebraska 653
18. Louisville 442
19. Louisiana Tech 413
20. Rutgers 354
23. Michigan 144
Current Harris Top Five
1. Oregon (90) 2,844
2. Kansas State (23) 2,774
3. Notre Dame (1) 2,634
4. Alabama (1) 2,494
5. Georgia 2,398
14. Nebraska 1,238
17. Louisville 943
20. Louisiana Tech 728
21. Rutgers 571
24. Michigan 264
Current AP Poll Top Five
1. Oregon (45) 1,485
2. Kansas State (14) 1,451
3. Notre Dame (1) 1,382
4. Alabama 1,259
5. Georgia 1,223
16. Nebraska 549
19. Louisiana Tech 374
20. Louisville 322
22. Rutgers 179
23. Michigan 135
25. Kent State 93
*AP Top 25 not a component of the BCS Standings.