There are unlikely to be any changes in the BCS top five beginning week 12 unless there are some unexpected upsets this weekend. Four out of the top five BCS teams are playing on the road, but mostly against weak competition. Week 11 opponents of Georgia, Notre Dame, and Oregon have a combined record of 7-21.
Kansas State is the most likely of the top five to lose this weekend due to the uncertainty of QB Collin Klein and they are favored by the smallest point spread of the top five teams.
If Texas A&M was to upset Alabama, then they would jump into the top ten of the BCS Standings and possibly the top five. But it would be a tall order for Johnny “Football” and the Aggies since they are 15.5 point underdogs playing in Tuscaloosa.
Oregon jumping Kansas State has a real chance of happening in the long run, but is definitely not a sure thing. The computers and voters will have to keep amping up support for the Ducks over the Wildcats.
The Ducks may be number two in the human polls, but are not a consensus two so they still have points to gain. The BCS averages goes by points computed to a decimal. The “eye test” may ultimately decide which team will be ranked second if all the top teams stay undefeated.
“As long as they’re No. 2 in the polls, you have to like Oregon,” CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm said. “That’s what drives this thing.” (USA Today)
As far as the computers, the opponents of Oregon and Kansas State, already played and future, will play an important factor. Especially for Oregon since they currently have the strongest opponents left, but if any of them fall further in rank, it will be even closer. For week 11, the Sagarin BCS Ratings had Oregon at number seven, the lowest of the top five teams in the BCS Standings.
Kansas State’s remaining opponents win-loss record is 17-9, but Oregon’s remaining owl is almost identical at 17-10. The Ducks do have an extra game due to the Pac-12 Championship, but the Wildcats have Texas scheduled on the same date so voters will not be swayed.
If Notre Dame defeats USC in a couple weeks, it will hurt Oregon. The Irish would probably still not jump the Ducks. But it would make it more difficult for Oregon to overtake Kansas State at number two since it would lower the value of USC as a past opponent for the Ducks. As for the Irish, they are caught in a rankings stalemate unless a team ahead of them loses.
The decline of USC has hurt the strength of schedule of both Notre Dame and Oregon. As far as AP Polls, no preseason number one has ended their season outside the top 20 since 1964 according to collegepollarchive.com (WSJ). The Trojans are definitely on the verge of doing so with three losses already while currently ranked 21st in the AP and 19th in the BCS. Their final three opponents have a combined record of 21-6 with two in the top 25.
If Northwestern and TCU lose this week, Northern Illinois will break the BCS Standings. BCS No. 25 Toledo already lost this week. Northwestern is ranked at 24 for the week 11 BCS Standings and TCU is just outside of the Harris Poll. Both are projected underdogs in this week’s games according to oddsmakers. Northern Illinois is off this week so it would open a spot for them to break the top 25.
Depending on weekend results, I may post updates of projections before the official BCS Standings come out and sometime after the Coaches Poll noon release time. Updates will be listed below in this post.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 1:25 AM ET*** Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Texas A&M*. *On the BCS and Coaches Poll top five bubble: Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 3:30 AM ET*** ESPN Brad Edwards' Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Basically, all four -Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU- have a chance of being ranked in the BCS top five. Alabama is always a voter favorite so it would be no surprise to see them stay in the top five or higher. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 4:15 PM ET*** Official USA Today Coaches Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Official AP Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. Texas A&M did not get much love in the Coaches Poll which is astonishing since they beat the number one team on the road. In the Coaches Poll, the Aggies went from 16 to 14 after defeating Mississippi St, but only went from 14 to 10 after the Alabama win! Kansas State should still be the BCS number one, but the Aggies will probably be somewhere inbetween 5 and 10 in the BCS. CBS Sports Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. The next three ranked in his projections are Florida, LSU, and Texas A&M. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 8:44 PM ET*** Official BCS Top 10: 1 Kansas State .967, 2 Oregon .950, 3 Notre Dame .940, 4 Alabama .853, 5 Georgia .833, 6 Florida .796, 7 LSU .733, 8 Texas A&M .662, 9 South Carolina .635, and 10 Florida State .607. Aggies did not get much respect from voters for the win in Tuscaloosa. I wonder how the computers ranked them. Top three are very tight. Notre Dame and Oregon are only .010 apart! Here is the full updated post with more information.
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1 Alabama Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, vs 15 Texas A&M 7-2
Sat Nov 17, vs Western Carolina 1-9*
Sat Nov 24, vs Auburn 2-7
Sat Dec 1, SEC Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 10-18
2 Kansas St Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at TCU 6-3
Sat Nov 17, at Baylor 4-4
Sat Dec 1, vs 17 Texas 7-2
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 17- 9
3 Oregon Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at California 3-7
Sat Nov 17, vs 14 Stanford 7-2
Sat Nov 24, at 11 Oregon State 7-1
Sat Dec 1, Pac 12 Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 17-10
4 Notre Dame Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at Boston College 2-7
Sat Nov 17, vs Wake Forest 5-4
Sat Nov 24, at 19 USC 6-3
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 13- 14
5 Georgia Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at Auburn 2-7
Sat Nov 17, vs Georgia Southern 7-2*
Sat Nov 24, vs Georgia Tech 4-5
Sat Dec 1, SEC Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 13-14
15 Texas A&M at 1 Alabama, Crimson Tide by 15.5
2 Kansas State at TCU, Wildcats by 7.5
3 Oregon at California, Ducks by 27
4 Notre Dame at Boston College, Fighting Irish by 20
5 Georgia at Auburn, Bulldogs by 16
Projected BCS Top Five if Favorites Win
Projected BCS Top Five if Kansas State Loses
Projected BCS Top Four if Alabama Loses