Team, Record, True Wins
LSU 13-1, 585
Oklahoma State 12-1, 570
Alabama 12-1, 461
Oklahoma 10-3, 392
Team, Fair Score
Oklahoma State .28634
Team, BOW, Total Wins
Oklahoma State 12-1, 92, 607
LSU 13-1, 97, 588
Alabama 12-1, 79, 464
Oklahoma 10-3, 71, 453
Team, LOL, Total Losses
Oklahoma 11, 61
Oklahoma State 7, 37
LSU 1, 3
Alabama 1, 3
Above are statistics listed for the fairest ranking system in college football. I have literally been working on this for over a year. I am as close as ever to perfecting it and creating a system of standings in college football that could determine automatic qualifiers. It is all based on who they beat and who they lose to.
The Fair Ranking System has been modified to include losses as part of the newly developed true wins. Listed above are a few of the top teams from the 2011 season calculated according to the new system. The modified version will be used for the 2012 season. Calculations will be done early mid-season and at the end of the season. The following is the explanation of the Fair Ranking System and the new changes to it. Some of this is from a previous article I posted.
The following statistical measures are included in the Fair Ranking System. I listed the beaten opponents' wins (BOW) and total wins for each team. Total wins consist of the team's wins, beaten opponents' wins, and beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins. I also listed the lost to opponents' losses (LOL) and total losses. Total losses consist of team's losses, lost to opponents' losses, and lost to opponents' of lost to opponents losses. Total wins minus total losses equals true wins. True wins is the best statistic listed to determine what team has earned their rank and for automatic qualifiers.
The formula for the Fair Score is as follows:
Team's win percent times beaten opponents' win percent times beaten opponents' of beaten opponents win percent = Fair Score.
Other calculation notes: Games against non-FBS teams were counted and each non-FBS team was designated a record of 1-10 in order to give some value to the game. Also, if an FBS team is winless at the end of the season, then their record will still show one win when calculating a team's fair score in order to give value to all wins. Losses of beaten opponents against the team being calculated were not included in the win-loss percentage of beaten opponents.
Using Oklahoma as an example, here is how the Fair Ranking System is calculated:
Oklahoma Sooners 10-3
Team wins: 10
Beaten opponents' wins (BOW): 71 (Tulsa 8, Florida State 9, Missouri 8, Ball State 6, Texas 8, Kansas 2, Kansas State 10, Texas A&M 7, Iowa State 6, and Iowa 7.)
Beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins: 372
Tulsa beat Tulane 2, North Texas 5, UAB 3, Rice 4, SMU 8, UCF 5, Marshall 7, and Utep 5.
Florida State beat ULM 4, Charleston Southern 1, Duke 3, Maryland 2, NC State 8, Boston College 4, Miami 6, Florida 7 and Notre Dame 8.
Missouri beat Miami OH 4, Western Illinois 1, Iowa State 6, Texas A&M 7, Texas 8, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, and North Carolina 7.
Ball State beat Indiana 1, Buffalo 3, Army 3, Ohio 10, Central Michigan 3, and Eastern Michigan 6.
Texas beat Rice 4, BYU 10, UCLA 6, Iowa State 6, Kansas 2, Texas Tech 5, Texas A&M 7, and California 7.
Kansas beat McNeese St 1, and Northern Illinois 11.
Kansas State beat Eastern Kentucky 1, Kent St 5, Miami 6, Baylor 10, Missouri 8, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, Texas A&M 7, Texas 8, and Iowa State 6.
Texas A&M beat SMU 8, Idaho 2, Texas Tech 5, Baylor 10, Iowa St 6, Kansas 2, and Northwestern 6.
Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 1, Iowa 7, Connecticut 5, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, and Oklahoma St 12.
Iowa beat Tennessee Tech 1, Pitt 6, ULM 4, Northwestern 6, Indiana 1, Michigan 11, and Purdue 7.
Total Wins: 453
Team losses: 3
Lost to opponents' losses (LOL): 11 (Lost to Texas Tech 7, Baylor 3, and Oklahoma State 1.)
Lost to opponents' of lost to opponents losses: 47
Texas Tech lost to Texas A&M 6, Kansas State 3, Iowa State 7, Texas 5, Oklahoma State 1, Missouri 5, and Baylor 3.
Baylor lost to Kansas State 3, Texas A&M 6, and Oklahoma State 1.
Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State 7.
Total Losses: 61
True Wins: 392
453 total wins minus 61 total losses equals 392 true wins.
Fair Score: (10/13)(71/117)(372/822)= .21125172
(wins/games)(bow/games)(bow's of bow/games)= fair score
This is my first blog after my hiatus from writing for a few weeks. I also own another business in which I had a large project that I had to take care of in December right after the college football season ended. Well, I’m back with BCS Bowl predictions. I will have more predictions coming out later this week, but for now here are mine for the Rose, Fiesta, and Sugar Bowls: Rose Bowl:
This year’s Rose Bowl contestants are the bowl’s previous two losers in Oregon and Wisconsin. Both teams face long odds in that no other team other than USC or Washington in the now Pac 12 has won the Rose Bowl since Arizona State defeated Michigan in 1987 and only Ohio State has won it for the Big 10 since Wisconsin beat Stanford in 2000. This will be the sixth appearance in the Rose Bowl for Oregon, but they have not won it since 1917. As a result, the Badgers and Ducks will be extra hungry for a Rose Bowl win. This is a very tight game to pick and I have gone back and forth on who will win. Wisconsin has a veteran quarterback in Russell Wilson (3,199 Pass/Rush Yards 36 Total TDs) and a Heisman trophy finalist in running back Montee Ball (1,759 Rush yards 32 Rush TDs), but Oregon has a fast paced scoring offense that can give any team trouble. The skill positions for the Ducks may be the deciding factor especially their arsenal of running backs led by LaMichael James (149.6 Rush yards per game). I’m taking Oregon in this one even though I think Wisconsin may beat the spread. Either way it should be a great game. Pick: OregonTostitos Fiesta Bowl:
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl should be an exciting game featuring a couple high powered offenses. Oklahoma State will most likely be too much for Stanford even though the Cardinal will light up the scoreboard. Stanford simply does not have the defense or cornerbacks to match up with the dynamic offense of Oklahoma State led by WR Justin Blackmon (1,336 receiving yards 15 TDs) and QB Brandon Weeden (4,328 pass yards 34 TDs). The Cowboys also boast one of the best offensive lines in college football. This will likely be Andrew Luck’s (3,170 pass yards 35 TDs) last game for Stanford so I do expect him to go out with a bang, but he has limited targets which will especially hurt him in the red zone. Pick: Oklahoma StateAllstate Sugar Bowl:
Virginia Tech seems about a year or so away from a BCS bowl win and I might have said that about Michigan before the season, but Brady Hoke has overachieved in his first season at Michigan behind a much improved defense (17.2 PAPG) and a double headed rushing attack featuring QB Denard Robinson (3219 total yards 34 total TDs) and RB Fitzgerald Touissant (1,011 Rush yards 9 Rush TDs). If the Hokies want to pull the upset then star running back David Wilson (1,627 Rush Yards 9 Rush TDs) will need to shine. He only had 32 rushing yards on 11 carries in his last game against Clemson in the ACC championship. Pick: MichiganBovada Betting Lines as of January 1, 2012: Rose Bowl:
Oregon -6 Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma State-4 Sugar Bowl:
Virginia Tech +3
This is a list of Heisman Trophy contenders. I ranked them on who I feel is most worthy, but I also included information on the current leaders.
The frontrunners early on are quarterbacks Andrew Luck
and Russell Wilson
. Robert Griffin III
is my early leader, but among Heisman voters Luck is still heavily favored to win. RG3 began this season with a big win over TCU and has only thrown one interception so far. Luck is undoubtedly the top NFL prospect in college football and is coming off of last season’s hype as Heisman runner up. In Wisconsin, they now have hope of a national championship behind their star transfer Wilson that already helped the Badgers thump Nebraska.
It is midseason so the race is still wide open. There are a couple of running backs that are just a big game or two away from being vaulted to the top of Heisman contention. Trent Richardson
is still a strong contender and LaMichael James
was running himself back into the race until an injury to his elbow which may keep him out of it.There are also long shot contenders that could rise. LSU CB Tyrann Mathieu
is in the running, but he will need to keep putting up eye popping stats to stay in contention as a defensive player. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones
jumped to number two on the website Stiff Arm Trophy after last weekend's demolition of Texas.
I actually included 13 players in the Dynamic Dozen since LaMichael James is injured and I felt that AJ Jenkins
is the best wide receiver worth mentioning so I have him tied with Denard Robinson
for the last spot. 1. Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
, 360 pass/rush ypg, 21 total touchdowns, 80.3% completion, 212.9 passer rating.2. Andrew Luck QB Stanford
, 276.6 passing ypg, 73.1% completion, 15 total touchdowns.3. Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin,
272.2 passing ypg, 74.8% completion, 15 total touchdowns, 216.9 passer rating.4. Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
, 376 passing ypg, 15 passing touchdowns, 75.8% completion.5. Trent Richardson RB Alabama,
146.3 rush/receiving ypg, 12 total touchdowns. 6. Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU,
4 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered, 2 interceptions, 5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 touchdowns.7. Kellen Moore QB Boise State,
278.2 passing ypg, 17 passing touchdowns, 171.6 passer rating, 74% completion.8. Landry Jones QB Oklahoma,
362.8 passing ypg, 15 total touchdowns. 9. Case Keenum QB Houston,
384.8 passing ypg, 17 passing touchdowns, 71.4% completion, 174.8 passer rating.10. LaMichael James RB Oregon,
202.2 rush/receiving ypg, 9 total touchdowns. 11. Marcus Lattimore RB South Carolina,
155.3 rush/receiving ypg, 10 total touchdowns12t. Denard Robinson QB Michigan,
308.3 pass/rush ypg, 18 total touchdowns12t. AJ Jenkins WR Illinois,
135.8 receiving ypg, 7 receiving touchdowns.
Some other players just out of the Heisman spotlight: David Wilson RB Virginia Tech, Tajh Boyd QB Clemson, Matt Barkley QB USC, Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas, Geno Smith QB West Virginia, and Robert Woods WR USC.
Links to other Heisman lists and information:
Heisman Watch Week 7 ESPN Expert’s Pollhttp://espn.go.com/college-football/heisman11/
Week 6: Jones replaces Wilson in top two.http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
2011 Heisman Trophy Predictionshttp://www.docsports.com/current/heisman-trophy-predictions.html
LaMichael James' Heisman hopes falter in wake of elbow injury.http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cory_mccartney/10/10/heisman-watch/index.html
Honey Badger for Heisman.http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/blog/_/name/mcgee_ncf_ryan/id/7087248/cfb-lsu-tigers-db-tyrann-mathieu-heisman-case
Oklahoma State (12-0) 18.771
Oklahoma (11-1) 17.408
Missouri (10-2) 13.285
Texas (9-3) 11.947
Texas Tech (8-4) 10.921
Baylor (5-7) 7.966
Texas A&M (6-6/5-7) 6.64
Kansas State (7-5/6-6) 5.299
Iowa State (2-10) 2.014
Kansas (1-11) -1.7
*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.
Oklahoma State is projected to have an undefeated season, but their games against Oklahoma and Missouri are projected to be very close. Texas A&M at Kansas State is too close to call and that is why there are two projections for both teams. Texas A&M is possibly the most overrated team in college football numerically speaking. Their rankings in the preseason polls must be mostly due to the "eye test" and speculation.
Nothing to surprising about my picks, but I may change some before the season starts.These are my BCS conference champion predictions:
ACC: Florida State
Contenders: Florida State is almost everyone's preseason favorite for ACC champion, but Virginia Tech is the frontrunner to win the Coastal division and the conference overall this year should be solid.
Big East: West Virginia
Contenders: Pitt may be the next contender, but overall the conference looks bland coming into this season and West Virginia seems to be the only strong team in the conference.
Big 12: Oklahoma
Contenders: The Sooners are the clear favorite, but the Big 12 does have other contenders for the 2011 championship including Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and longshot Missouri.
Big 10: Wisconsin
Contenders: It looks as though Ohio State should finally have a down year so that leaves the field wide open. Nebraska may be the next favorite to win championship after Wisconsin and they should win the Legends division, but plenty others have a chance including Michigan State and Michigan.
Pac 12: Oregon
Contenders: With Andrew Luck returning, it makes Stanford a contender, but it will be difficult for them to duplicate last season with all of their other key losses. If USC was not under a ban, then they could possibly win the championship. The Trojans may end up with one of the better records in the Pac 12. Oregon has a wealth of talent and should win another championship this year, but off the field issues are now looming over the program that may have an effect.
SEC: Arkansas/ Alabama
Contenders: I listed two champions for this conference since I am somewhat bias on this selection since I'm a known Hog fan. I do believe the Razorbacks can win the SEC this season, but Alabama is the clear favorite among most others. However, the SEC is stacked with competition with the West having other stout contenders in LSU and Mississippi State as well as in the East division there are contenders in South Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Florida under new coach Will Muschamp.
On this blog, I have provided a variety of information to give a free preseason guide for college football fans. I have included the projected AP top 10, composite rankings from preseason magazines, the CFU top 50, a YouTube video, and many useful links.
These are my projected top 10 teams for the AP Top 25 that will be released in August. These are not my top 10 teams. My top 10 is on this blog post under the CFU Top 50.Projected AP Top 10
5. Boise State
7. Florida State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Texas A&M
10. South Carolina
Just Outside: Nebraska.
Oklahoma and Alabama should be ranked at 1 and 2 respectively when the AP poll is released. Oregon and LSU will be in close competition for the 3 and 4 spots. I think LSU will get more #1 votes than the Ducks and there are more voters from the south than the west coast, but Oregon has had plenty of publicity and do warrant a high ranking in the eyes of many voters. Boise State should be in the top 10, but it is hard to say where they will fall in the rankings due to bias by certain voters that continuously underrate them. Stanford should be another definite top 10 team in which will most likely fall somewhere in the 5 to 8 preseason rank. Florida State will also be in the same range as the Cardinal. Oklahoma State and Texas A&M should be somewhere in the latter half of the top 10. The last team in is a close call; I think South Carolina will be in the AP top 10, but Nebraska does have a chance.
I also bought some college football preseason magazines over the past weekend and below are the composite rankings of the top 10 from the four I read including Athlon Sports, Sporting News, Phil Steele's top 40, and Lindy’s Sports. Athlon and Phil Steele both have Alabama ranked number one. Sporting News has LSU in the top slot and Lindy's has Oklahoma for their one. LSU seems to be the most bogus of the teams being hyped as a preseason number one. I agree that LSU may deserve anywhere from a top 5 to top 10 ranking, but there is not enough to warrant a ranking over Oklahoma, Alabama, or even Oregon. It looks like Sporting News filled up on too much gumbo.
All teams that were ranked in the top 10 by each preseason magazine are included in the rankings. Each team received points for their ranking (10 pts for #1, 9 pts for #2, and so on).Top 10 Composite Rankings from Preseason Magazines
1. Alabama (2) 37
2. Oklahoma (1) 37
3. Oregon 29
4. LSU (1) 24
5. Boise State 24
6. Florida State 18
7. Stanford 10
8. Virginia Tech 10
9. Notre Dame 10
10. Texas A&M 5
11. Ohio State 5
12. Oklahoma State 4
13. Nebraska 4
14. Georgia 2
15. Arkansas 1
The preseason CFU Top 50 teams are listed below. The rankings are based on merit of previous accomplishments with an emphasis on the previous season combined with the amount/quality of returning starters, coaching, and the incoming recruiting class. The CFU Top 50 is not a prediction of other polls or of the season's final rankings. Otherwise, I attempt to determine rank with some sort of fairness rather than preordain rank. However, there is no exact science to these rankings. I am in the process of developing a formula based ranking that I will release later.CFU Top 50
4. Boise State
5. Oklahoma State
7. Florida State
10. South Carolina
14. Texas A&M
15. Miss State
16. Michigan State
17. Notre Dame
20. Virginia Tech
23. West Virginia
24. Ohio State
27. Penn State
33. NC State
35. Miami FL
38. North Carolina
39. Arizona State
42. San Diego State
43. Air Force
44. Texas Tech
48. South Florida
Just outside the top 50: Nevada, Boston College, Miami-OH, Hawaii, Houston, Oregon State, Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Cal, Cincinnati, Troy, FIU
Since I last posted the CFU top 25, some of the rankings have changed. Ohio State is now ranked at 24 due to the loss of their coach and quarterback combined with the instability now in the program. Nevada was close to being a top 50 team based on merit of last season’s accomplishments, but the loss of talent at skill positions especially Colin Kaepernick leaves to question if they can continue the level of success from last season. Many preseason rankings have them somewhere around a top 75 to 90 team, but I believe they deserve a higher rank due to the recent progress of their football program. Here are links for more information:
Other early preseason Top 25 rankings:
Early preseason rankings by NationalChamps.net:http://nationalchamps.net/2011/earlybird/index.htm
Athlon Sports Preseason Top 25:http://www.athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25
ESPN College Football Live early Top 25 Poll:http://espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/19472/one-big-east-team-in-early-top-25Information provided by Phil Steele:
Preseason All American team:http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/06/01/2011-preseason-all-american-team/
Preseason All Big Ten and All SEC teams:http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2011/May11/DBMay28.html
Returning starters (some inaccuracy since this blog is from Jan 26th):http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/01/26/2011-returning-starters/Stats, standings, and other rankings:
College Football 2010 Season Standings on ESPN.com:
Last season's rankings according to TeamRankings.com:
CFU Rankings Page:http://www.collegefootballuniverse.com/Rankings.html
CFU Stats Page:
2011 Recruiting Class Rankings and Info:
ESPN Class Rankings:
Rivals.com 2011 Team Class Rankings:
Scout.com 2011 Team Rankings:
"10 Head Coaches Poised for Instant Success at New Schools" on BleacherReport.com:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/694589-college-football-2011-10-head-coaches-poised-for-instant-success-at-new-schools#/articles/694589-college-football-2011-10-head-coaches-poised-for-instant-success-at-new-schools
Other Posts from JB's Blog with Preseason Info:
Dirty South of College Football (analysis of SEC west):
College Football Universe Top 10 (note rankings have changed):
Dynamic Dozen Early Heisman Watch:
2011 College Football Bowl Season Top 10 Highlights on YouTube:
· Andrew Luck
Junior QB Stanford 70.7 Comp%, 32 TDs, 170.2 Passer Rating · Kellen Moore
Senior QB Boise State 71.3 Comp%, 35 TDs, 182.6 Passer Rating
· LaMichael James
Junior RB Oregon 1731 Rush Yds, 5.9 Avg Rush, 24 Total TDs
· Justin Blackmon
Junior WR Oklahoma State 1782 Receiving Yds, 16.1 Avg Rec, 21 Total TDs· Denard Robinson
Junior QB Michigan 4272 Total YDs, 6.6 Avg Rush, 32 Total TDs· Landry Jones
Junior QB Oklahoma 4718 Pass Yds, 38 TDs
· Brandon Weeden
Senior QB Oklahoma State 4277 Pass Yds, 35 TDs· Knile Davis
Junior HB Arkansas 1322 Rush Yds, 6.5 Avg Rush, 13 Rush TDs· Trent Richardson
Junior HB Alabama, 6.3 Avg Rush, 10 Total TDs· Ryan Broyles
Senior WR Oklahoma 1622 Receiving Yds, 14 TDs· Marcus Lattimore
Sophomore HB South Carolina 1609 Total Yds, 19 Total TDs· Alshon Jeffery
Junior WR South Carolina 1517 Receiving Yds, 17.2 Avg Rec, 9 TDs*
Stat totals are from last season.
These are my Dynamic Dozen Heisman frontrunners coming into the 2011 season. However, many of times the Heisman winner ends up being someone that was not on preseseason watch lists.
Here are links to other watch lists and Heisman info:Heisman Pundit
ESPN Pac-12 Blog
These lists cover most of the preseason candidates except some longshots like Chris Relf and Edwin Baker which may have just as good of a chance looking at recent history. Bleacher Report has Terrell Pryor on their list, but I doubt he will have a chance since he has to sit out five games. Andrew Luck will be at the top of almost everyone's Heisman watch going into week one. It will be his trophy to lose. Here is a YouTube video of his college highlights so far.
1. Oklahoma2. Oregon3. Alabama4. Boise State5. Stanford6. Oklahoma State7. Florida State8. Arkansas9. LSU10. South Carolina11. TCU12. Ohio State13. Wisconsin14. Nebraska15. Texas A&M16. Mississippi State17. Michigan State18. Auburn19. Notre Dame20. Missouri21. Florida22. Virginia Tech23. USC24. West Virginia
The rankings are based on overall merit encompassing a variety of factors. The CFU Top 25 is not a prediction of other polls or of the season's final rankings. I will be posting the top 50 soon with further analysis and all rankings are still subject to change.
I also posted these rankings on a blog at http://www.hogblog.org/.
1. OklahomaAfter last season's Big 12 championship and Fiesta Bowl win, the Sooners are returning a veteran class with a stellar offense and an all around solid team.2. OregonThe Ducks bring back some key impact players like Darron Thomas and LaMichael James from a squad that lost the National Championship game by only 3 points.3. AlabamaThe Tide rolls into another season with an elite defense returning most of the players from last season's top five defensive squad while bringing in a top rated recruiting class. 4. Boise StateThe boys in blue down in Boise consistently win each season under Coach Petersen plus they are bringing back a Heisman finalist in Kellen Moore.
5. StanfordThe Cardinal faithful have the most feared ball slinger in college football in Andrew Luck which is the clear preseason Heisman favorite.6. Oklahoma StateThe Cowboys have a high scoring shoot em out kind of offense that will continue to give teams trouble with ten starters returning from a top five offense last season.
7. Florida StateThe Seminoles return 16 starters on offense/defense from a team that won the Chick fil A Bowl against South Carolina and brought in a top notch recruiting class for this season.8. ArkansasThe Hogs have an elite squad of wide receivers that is the deepest in the nation and returns enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make a run at the BCS.9. LSUThe mad hatter consistently squeaks out big wins each year due to his solid defensive squads and deranged play calling. They are an experienced team that could be a BCS contender. 10. South CarolinaQB Stephen Garcia is questionable for the Gamecocks. But standout HB Marcus Lattimore will be back this season and Spurrier reeled in the number one rated recruit.
Just outside the Top 10: TCU, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.I will be posting the rest of the top 25 soon. See how CFU rankings compare so far to the ESPN College Football Live Top 25: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/18792/oklahoma-tops-cfb-live-preseason-poll
I also copied this blog post to www.HogBlog.org.