There are unlikely to be any changes in the BCS top five beginning week 12 unless there are some unexpected upsets this weekend. Four out of the top five BCS teams are playing on the road, but mostly against weak competition. Week 11 opponents of Georgia
, Notre Dame
, and Oregon
have a combined record of 7-21. Kansas State
is the most likely of the top five to lose this weekend due to the uncertainty of QB Collin Klein and they are favored by the smallest point spread of the top five teams.
If Texas A&M
was to upset Alabama
, then they would jump into the top ten of the BCS Standings and possibly the top five. But it would be a tall order for Johnny “Football” and the Aggies since they are 15.5 point underdogs playing in Tuscaloosa. Oregon
jumping Kansas State
has a real chance of happening in the long run, but is definitely not a sure thing. The computers and voters will have to keep amping up support for the Ducks over the Wildcats.
The Ducks may be number two in the human polls, but are not a consensus two so they still have points to gain. The BCS averages goes by points computed to a decimal. The “eye test” may ultimately decide which team will be ranked second if all the top teams stay undefeated.
“As long as they’re No. 2 in the polls, you have to like Oregon,” CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm said. “That’s what drives this thing.” (USA Today)
As far as the computers, the opponents of Oregon and Kansas State, already played and future, will play an important factor. Especially for Oregon since they currently have the strongest opponents left, but if any of them fall further in rank, it will be even closer. For week 11, the Sagarin BCS Ratings had Oregon at number seven, the lowest of the top five teams in the BCS Standings.
Kansas State’s remaining opponents win-loss record is 17-9, but Oregon’s remaining owl is almost identical at 17-10. The Ducks do have an extra game due to the Pac-12 Championship, but the Wildcats have Texas scheduled on the same date so voters will not be swayed.
If Notre Dame
defeats USC in a couple weeks, it will hurt Oregon
. The Irish would probably still not jump the Ducks. But it would make it more difficult for Oregon to overtake Kansas State at number two since it would lower the value of USC as a past opponent for the Ducks. As for the Irish, they are caught in a rankings stalemate unless a team ahead of them loses.
The decline of USC
has hurt the strength of schedule of both Notre Dame and Oregon. As far as AP Polls, no preseason number one has ended their season outside the top 20 since 1964 according to collegepollarchive.com (WSJ). The Trojans are definitely on the verge of doing so with three losses already while currently ranked 21st in the AP and 19th in the BCS. Their final three opponents have a combined record of 21-6 with two in the top 25.
If Northwestern and TCU lose this week, Northern Illinois
will break the BCS Standings. BCS No. 25 Toledo already lost this week. Northwestern is ranked at 24 for the week 11 BCS Standings and TCU is just outside of the Harris Poll. Both are projected underdogs in this week’s games according to oddsmakers. Northern Illinois is off this week so it would open a spot for them to break the top 25.
Depending on weekend results, I may post updates of projections before the official BCS Standings come out and sometime after the Coaches Poll noon release time. Updates will be listed below in this post.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 1:25 AM ET*** Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Texas A&M*. *On the BCS and Coaches Poll top five bubble: Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 3:30 AM ET*** ESPN Brad Edwards' Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Basically, all four -Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU- have a chance of being ranked in the BCS top five. Alabama is always a voter favorite so it would be no surprise to see them stay in the top five or higher. Here is the full updated post with more information.***Update Nov 11 Sunday 4:15 PM ET*** Official USA Today Coaches Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Official AP Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. Texas A&M did not get much love in the Coaches Poll which is astonishing since they beat the number one team on the road. In the Coaches Poll, the Aggies went from 16 to 14 after defeating Mississippi St, but only went from 14 to 10 after the Alabama win! Kansas State should still be the BCS number one, but the Aggies will probably be somewhere inbetween 5 and 10 in the BCS. CBS Sports Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. The next three ranked in his projections are Florida, LSU, and Texas A&M. Here is the full updated post with more information.
***Update Nov 11 Sunday 8:44 PM ET*** Official BCS Top 10: 1 Kansas State .967, 2 Oregon .950, 3 Notre Dame .940, 4 Alabama .853, 5 Georgia .833, 6 Florida .796, 7 LSU .733, 8 Texas A&M .662, 9 South Carolina .635, and 10 Florida State .607. Aggies did not get much respect from voters for the win in Tuscaloosa. I wonder how the computers ranked them. Top three are very tight. Notre Dame and Oregon are only .010 apart! Here is the full updated post with more information.
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1 Alabama Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, vs 15 Texas A&M 7-2
Sat Nov 17, vs Western Carolina 1-9*
Sat Nov 24, vs Auburn 2-7
Sat Dec 1, SEC Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 10-18
2 Kansas St Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at TCU 6-3
Sat Nov 17, at Baylor 4-4
Sat Dec 1, vs 17 Texas 7-2
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 17- 9
3 Oregon Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at California 3-7
Sat Nov 17, vs 14 Stanford 7-2
Sat Nov 24, at 11 Oregon State 7-1
Sat Dec 1, Pac 12 Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 17-10
4 Notre Dame Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at Boston College 2-7
Sat Nov 17, vs Wake Forest 5-4
Sat Nov 24, at 19 USC 6-3
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 13- 14
5 Georgia Remaining Schedule with Opponent BCS Ranking & Record
Sat Nov 10, at Auburn 2-7
Sat Nov 17, vs Georgia Southern 7-2*
Sat Nov 24, vs Georgia Tech 4-5
Sat Dec 1, SEC Championship
Opponents Remaining Win-Loss Record: 13-14
Important games this weekend with BCS ranking and USA Today point spread:
15 Texas A&M at 1 Alabama, Crimson Tide by 15.5
2 Kansas State at TCU, Wildcats by 7.5
3 Oregon at California, Ducks by 27
4 Notre Dame at Boston College, Fighting Irish by 20
5 Georgia at Auburn, Bulldogs by 16
| |Current BCS Top Five
- Alabama .9957
- Kansas State .9318
- Oregon .9166
- Notre Dame .9050
- Georgia .8171
| |Current Sagarin BCS Top Five
- Alabama 96.97
- Kansas State 96.71
- Notre Dame 96.31
- Florida 95.5
- Georgia 92.85
| |Projected BCS Top Five if Favorites Win
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
| |Projected BCS Top Five if Kansas State Loses
*Depending on the condition of Kansas State QB Collin Klein, if the Wildcats lose they could stay in the top 10 or fall all the way to the bottom of the top 20.
- Notre Dame
| |Projected BCS Top Four if Alabama Loses
*Texas A&M would be on the bubble for the BCS top five and definitely ranked in the BCS top 10.
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
It looks as if the favorites win this week, Oregon
(8-0) will be back to number three for week 11 of the BCS Standings. They play at BCS No. 17 USC (6-2) this weekend and the Ducks are currently fourth in the BCS for week 10 by a slim margin of just .0011 behind the Fighting Irish. The computers should finally give the Ducks some love this weekend if they win against the Trojans. Notre Dame
(8-0) faces Pittsburgh (4-4) at home this weekend. Pitt is only rated 94th and USC is currently 19th in the Sagarin BCS Ratings so a strong advantage goes to the Ducks over the Irish this weekend in strength of opponent. An Oregon win also hurts Notre Dame more than one way since USC is the Irish's strongest opponent left on the schedule.
Of course, if LSU
(7-1) upsets Alabama (8-0), look for the top five to be scrambled, because of the various scenarios of how voters and the computers may rank the Tigers.
(7-1) defeats Ole Miss (5-3) and all other favorites win, then the Bulldogs will be in the top five of the BCS Standings. They are currently at six and a loss by BCS No. 5 LSU would open up a spot for Georgia.
***Update Nov 4 Sunday 1:45 AM ET*** The BCS projected top five remains the same since all favorites won today: 1 Alabama, 2 Kansas State, 3 Oregon, 4 Notre Dame, and 5 Georgia. The projected AP top five: 1 Alabama, 2 Oregon, 3 Kansas State, 4 Notre Dame, and 5 Ohio State. The projected USA Today Coaches Poll top five: 1 Alabama, 2 Oregon, 3 Kansas State, 4 Notre Dame, and 5 Georgia.
***Update Nov 4 Sunday 9:15 PM ET*** Official BCS top five came out as projected: 1 Alabama, 2 Kansas State, 3 Oregon, 4 Notre Dame, and 5 Georgia.
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Important games this weekend with BCS ranking and USA Today point spread: 1 Alabama at 5 LSU, Crimson Tide by 8
4 Oregon at 17 USC, Ducks by 6
24 Oklahoma State at 2 Kansas State, Wildcats by 8
Pittsburgh at 3 Notre Dame, Fighting Irish by 18.5
Ole Miss at 6 Georgia, Bulldogs by 17.5
| |Current BCS Top Five
- Alabama .9759
- Kansas State .9400
- Notre Dame .9147
- Oregon .9136
- LSU .8163
| |Projected BCS Top Five if Favorites Win
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
The Bronko Nagurski Trophy Watch List for the nation's best defensive player was announced Thursday by the Football Writers Association of America and the Charlotte Touchdown Club. The trophy is named in honor of former All-American Bronislau "Bronko" Nagurski which played college football at Minnesota and for the Chicago Bears as a pro.
The SEC players have the most players on the watch with 19 and probably have the top candidates coming into the season. Last season's winner Luke Kuechly is now in the NFL, but last season's Bednarik Award winner Tyrann Mathieu of LSU is on the list and highly talented Georgia linebacker Jarvis Jones is a strong contender.
Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o is also a definite contender. He has been consistently dominate on defense with at least 128 total tackles per season in 2010 and 2011
. The Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and Pac-12 all have 10 or more players named to the list.
You can find more information about the Bronko Nagurski Trophy at TouchdownClub.com.
2012 Bronko Nagurski Trophy Preseason Watch List:
SEC (19):CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi StateDE Jadeveon Clowney, South CarolinaS Matt Elam, Florida
DT Sharrif Floyd, FloridaDL John Jenkins, Georgia
LB Nico Johnson, AlabamaLB Jarvis Jones, GeorgiaDE Corey Lemonier, Auburn
S Robert Lester, AlabamaDT Rob Lohr, VanderbiltCB Tyrann Mathieu, LSUCB Dee Milliner, Alabama
DE Barkevious Mingo, LSU
DE Sam Montgomery, LSU
LB C.J. Mosley, AlabamaLB Sean Porter, Texas A&MS Eric Reid, LSUDE Devin Taylor, South CarolinaDL Jesse Williams, Alabama
Big Ten (14):
CB Johnny Adams, Michigan State
CB Ricardo Allen, PurdueLB Chris Borland, WisconsinLB Jonathan Brown, IllinoisDE Michael Buchanan, Illinois
LB Max Bullough, Michigan State
DE William Gholston, Michigan StateDT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State
LB Gerald Hodges, Penn StateCB Micah Hyde, IowaS Jordan Kovacs, MichiganDT Kawann Short, Purdue
DE John Simon, Ohio StateLB Mike Taylor, Wisconsin
Big 12 (13):
LB Arthur Brown, Kansas State
CB Brodrick Brown, Oklahoma State
CB Carrington Byndom, Texas
CB Demontre Hurst, Oklahoma
DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
S Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma
LB A.J. Klein, Iowa State
LB Jake Knott, Iowa State
CB Nigel Malone, Kansas State
DE Stansly Maponga, TCU
DE Alex Okafor, Texas
S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
LB Tom Wort, OklahomaACC (11):
CB David Amerson, N.C. StateCB Kyle Fuller, Virginia TechLB Steve Greer, VirginiaDE Brandon Jenkins, Florida StateS Lamarcus Joyner, Florida StateLB Kevin Pierre-Louis, Boston CollegeLB Kevin Reddick, North CarolinaCB Xavier Rhodes, Florida StateLB Bruce Taylor, Virginia TechDT Joe Vellano, MarylandDE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
LB Dion Bailey, USC
S John Boyett, OregonDE Dion Jordan, Oregon
LB Travis Long, Washington State
DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
S T.J. McDonald, USC
CB Jordan Poyer, Oregon State
CB Nickell Robey, USC
LB Shayne Skov, Stanford
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford
Big East (4):
LB Khaseem Greene, Rutgers
S Jarred Holley, Pittsburgh
S Hakeem Smith, Louisville
DE Trevardo Williams, ConnecticutConference USA (3):
LB Jamie Collins, Southern Miss
LB Trent Mackey, Tulane
S Dexter McCoil, TulsaIndependents (3):
DE Kapron Lewis-Moore, Notre Dame
LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
LB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo
DT Roosevelt Nix, Kent State
LB Dwayne Woods, Bowling GreenMountain West (2):
LB Travis Brown, Fresno StateCB Leon McFadden, San Diego State
Sun Belt (1):
LB Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky
DE Travis Johnson, San Jose State
Here are Spring game quarterback statistics and notes for all SEC teams.
Stats may be off some due to limited stat recording of Spring games. Top 5 Passing Yards
1.Tyler Wilson Arkansas 467
2. Maxwell Smith Kentucky 353
3. Tyler Russell Mississippi State 312
4. AJ McCarron Alabama 304
5. Zach Mettenberger LSU 272 West- Alabama
AJ McCarron 29/42, 304 yds, 2 TDs, 3 Ints
Phillip Sims, 9/12, 135 yds, 1 TD
Philip Ely, 10/18, 83 yds, 1 TD
*ESPN: "At the end of the day it's for the fans and we just want to kind of make it fun for them and make some crazy plays at the same time that we probably wouldn't do in a real game," McCarron said. "Coach always says, 'Just have fun,' and I had a lot of fun today." Arkansas
Tyler Wilson 31/41, 467 yds, 2 TDs
Brandon Mitchell 8/13, 72 yds (White), 30 yds, 1 TD (Red)*AP:The performance also left no doubt that the near future at Arkansas is in good hands with both Wilson and running back Knile Davis. Auburn
Kiehl Frazier 7/9, 92 yds
Clint Moseley 5/6, 62 yds
Zeke Pike 5/11, 48 yds
Tate O'Connor 0/1
*ESPN: Frazier finished 7-of-9 for 92 yards and showed off his ability to scramble around and make plays. Still, Chizik said the quarterback competition would extend into the summer. Clint Moseley was plagued by a sore throwing shoulder for much of the spring. LSU
Zach Mettenberger 14/25, 272 yds, 2 TDs, 2 Ints
*ESPN: "We're definitely going to be aggressive this coming season," Mettenberger said. "But we're going to do whatever we can to win ball games." Mississippi State
Tyler Russell 24/43, 312 yds, 2 TDs Dak Prescott
295 yds, 1 TD
*ESPN: It's obvious the Bulldogs have tweaked their offense to take advantage of Russell's ability to throw the ball from the pocket, and they threw it quite a bit this spring. Ole Miss
Bo Wallace 16/26, 240 yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int
Barry Brunetti 4/10, 62 yds, 14 rush, 136 rush yds
*Bleacher Report: The quarterback position has been up for grabs this spring, but Bo Wallace grabbed control of the race Saturday afternoon.Texas A&M
Jameill Showers 20/31, 203 yds, 2 TDs
Johnny Manziel 13/27, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int
*ESPN: Both quarterbacks had their moments, but there were also times when the offense stalled once it crossed the 50. Overall, sophomore Jameill Showers probably had the better spring, but offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said he wasn't ready to make a decision and that redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel remained in the hunt.East-Florida
Jacoby Brissett 9/16, 233 yds, 2 TDs
Jeff Driskel 12/14, 147 yds, 1 TD(Run)
*AP: Florida's quarterback competition will continue in the fall - and without a front-runner - after Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel failed to separate themselves during four weeks of practice and Saturday's spring game.Georgia
Aaron Murray 7/17, 112, 1 TD
Christian Lemay 7/10, 154 yds, 1 TD
Hutson Mason 9/12, 133 yds, 1 TD
*GeorgiaDogs.com:"It was a great day for Georgia," Coach Mark Richt said. "I feel like everyone enjoyed the game. I thought there were a lot of offensive plays that were made today. When you look at it, the defense was scoring points, too. I thought both sides of the ball played well. It was exciting."Kentucky
Maxwell Smith 29/45, 353 yds, 2 TDs, 2 Ints
*UKAthletics.com: There were plenty of positive signs for the first team, both offensively and defensively. Sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith had a big day through the air, throwing for 353 yards on 29-of-45 passing. With senior quarterback Morgan Newton sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Smith shined. Missouri
Corbin Berkstresser 13/20, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int
*Bleacher Report: With Franklin out, all eyes were on redshirt freshman quarterback Corbin Berkstresser, and he had a solid afternoon
Connor Shaw 6/7, 128 yds, 2 TDs
Dylan Thompson 15/20, 168 yds
Tanner McEvoy 8/12, 132 yds, 2 TDs
*Bleacher Report:Collectively, they were 39-54 for 511 yards and six TDs. There were two INTs, but overall, the signal-callers looked good. Connor Shaw's day really stood out.Tennessee
Tyler Bray 14/26, 157 yds, 1 TD
*ESPN:Junior quarterback Tyler Bray also played much better than he did a year ago in a woeful spring game showing. He was 14-of-26 for 157 yards and threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to tight endMychal Rivera. Bray's added maturity this spring is what earned him the most points with his coaches. Vanderbilt
Jordan Rodgers 14/29, 126 yds, 2 TDs
Austyn Carta-Samuels 6/12, 47 yds
Patton Robinette 3/9, 24 yds
*VUCommodores.com: "Last year, we did (the Wildcat) with Zac Stacy, who did some nice things, but he also made (poor) decisions throwing," Franklin said. "With a guy (Josh Grady) that has played quarterback, I think that's going to help. He can run the ball and he's a legitimate threat to throw the ball. I think that's going to help us."
How would the Boise State Broncos do in the SEC? Boise State would be even better in the SEC. The Broncos showed this weekend that they could win against an SEC team with massive size. More importantly, the boost they would receive from recruiting and conference respect as well as having the best coach in the country would leave no doubt to their validity as a top notch college football program. Of course because of geography and other reasons, this move will never happen, but we still speculate.
Just this past weekend Boise State went into SEC country and stomped the Georgia Bulldogs. Because of last season’s follies for the Bulldogs, many detractors of the Broncos would argue that Georgia is not a quality team. Despite Coach Mark Richt having his first losing season (6-7) with the Bulldogs last year, he did compile a record of 96-34 with Georgia before Saturday. They also brought back some key starters and hauled in a top recruiting class. They had six players named to the SEC Coaches Preseason All SEC Team and three to the first team offense including quarterback Aaron Murray. Also according to Rivals.com, Georgia recruited the fifth ranked class in 2011. All of these factors gave them a preseason top 25 ranking and many experts were hyping them as a rejuvenated team full of talent. Now Boise State doubters are denouncing their victory over UGA when many of the same people were hyping the Bulldogs as a superior team before the game. Georgia did gain close to the same amount of yards as Boise State in their game Saturday, but they lacked the veteran leadership of a sharpshooter quarterback like Kellen Moore and the execution that the Broncos had to put the ball in the end zone.
Boise State proves size doesn’t matter; it’s the motion of the offense that counts. The Broncos’ critics think just because they have a smaller offensive line than many big conference teams that they are a spread “air it out” style offense. Boise State is not a typical spread style or gimmick air raid offense; they use multiple formations, move players around, and run the ball effectively. Their offensive line does average less weight per starter than a starter from the SEC, but the difference in size is not as drastic as often portrayed and they overcome what they lack in size with talent. They played the largest offensive line in the SEC this past weekend with an average of 335.8 lbs. per starting lineman, but the SEC average is 310.6 lbs. per starting offensive lineman which is more comparative to Boise State’s 289.4 lbs. per starting lineman. On the other hand, their defense is not undersized and the average weight of their defensive lineman is near the same as that of an SEC defensive lineman. The average weight of a starting defensive lineman for the Broncos is 281.25 lbs. and the average weight of an SEC starter is 277.24 lbs. Georgia’s defensive line is exceptionally large even for the SEC with an average of 321.7 lbs. per starter. (Projected starters and weights from Sporting News College Football 2011 Preview magazine were used to calculate average weights.)
An excellent coach like Petersen in a power conference like the SEC would be a recipe for a national championship. Boise State’s Coach Chris Petersen could arguably be the best coach in the country. In his five years with the Broncos, he has compiled a record of 61-5 with five consecutive 10 win seasons and two of them undefeated ending with Fiesta Bowl wins. He is the only coach since 1900 to win 13 games in his first season with an FBS team and he is the only coach ever to win two Paul “Bear” Bryant National Coach of the Year Awards. 11 of the 25 winners have won either a BCS, AP, or USA Today national championship with a much higher percentage of dual winners over the past 11 years. Six of the last nine Bear Bryant award winners not including Petersen have went on to win a national championship.
The Broncos' recruiting would only get better if they moved to a power conference like the SEC. There were four SEC teams ranked in the Rival Recruiting top 10, eight in the top 20, and 10 out of the 12 SEC teams were ranked in the Rivals Top 50 Recruiting Team Rankings for 2011. In 2010, an astounding 11 out of 12 teams in the SEC were ranked in the Rivals Top 50 Recruiting. According to Rivals Recruiting Team Rankings, from 2002-2011 Boise State has never been ranked in the final top 50. It is evident that they have overachieved based on recruit rankings. Inclusion into a power conference would only boost their recruiting due to higher notoriety, more publicity, and introduction into new markets. The Broncos have just moved to the Mountain West Conference and may achieve their first top 50 Rivals rankings if they can maintain their spot at 40 currently for the class of 2012. Their success thus far exemplifies the capability of their coaches to find hidden talent and develop players.
Boise State would be a better team, but would not have the same amount of wins in a power conference. It would be inevitable that the Broncos would eventually have issues with playing on the road and in different climates even though they have an excellent road record as of late. On the other hand, I believe their home record would be similar to what it has been. They are 64-2 at home since 1999 and have beat teams like Oregon on the Blue. I think they would still garner many wins each season just less road wins. Boise State would still have more talent if they were in a power conference and their coach is capable enough to gain notoriety in a BCS conference to finally achieve a slot in the national championship game. They just proved they could handle a larger team. The SEC would only make them a better team.
Here are highlights from last week's game between Boise State and Georgia:
The College Gameday game of the week was Oregon vs LSU. The first half was competitive, but the Ducks were falling apart by the third quarter. They had multiple fumbles and the Bayou Bengal defense took advantage of them. The Oregon offense garnered less than 100 yards rushing in a pivotal first game. Final Score: LSU 40 Oregon 27
Boise State vs. Georgia was another highly anticipated match up of the weekend. The first half was close with the Broncos leading 14-7 at the break. Kellen Moore of Boise State was in rhythm by the third quarter and started throwing darts down field. A balanced attack by the Broncos was too much for the Bulldogs to handle. Final Score: Boise State 35 Georgia 21.
Yet another SEC team played a strong out of conference opponent in BYU at Ole Miss. It was a low scoring game and Ole Miss only led 3-0 at the half. Ole Miss went up 13-0 and their defense was smothering until BYU made a sudden comeback in the fourth quarter. Todd Heap threw a touchdown pass to Ross Apo at the 9:52 mark in the fourth and later Kyle Van Noy recovered a fumble for a three yard touchdown to put the Cougars up 14-13. Final Score: BYU 14 Ole Miss 13.
USC played in a very tight game with Minnesota. They held on to win 19-17 behind Robert Wood’s school record 17 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns. Final Score: USC 19 Minnesota 17.
South Florida also beat Notre Dame in a game that was delayed twice. Notre Dame started play very sloppy and they could never recover. Final Score: South Florida 23 Notre Dame 20.
Brady Hoke was successful in his coaching debut for Michigan in a game that was delayed and called final early due to weather. Final Score: Michigan 34 Western Michigan 10.
Arkansas defeated Missouri State in an expected blow out. 11 different players caught a pass for the Razorbacks and Joe Adams returned two punts for touchdowns. Final score: Arkansas 51 Missouri State 7.
I just gave a quick recap of the games I watched. Leave a comment about any of the games played today. I also blogged about some of the early games and scores on my last post. Here’s a link to the ESPN scoreboard for the rest of the night’s final scores and ongoing games:http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=80&seasonYear=2011&seasonType=2&weekNumber=1
Alabama (13-0) 21.35
Auburn (9-3) 14.475
LSU (8-4) 13.4
Mississippi State (7-5) 12.563
Arkansas (8-4) 9.835
Ole Miss (4-8/5-7) 9
Florida (11-2) 15.033
South Carolina (6-6) 10.2
Georgia (8-4) 8.811
Tennessee (5-7) 7.286
Kentucky (7-5) 6.853
Vanderbilt (2-10) -1.975
*Conference Championships are included in projections.
*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.
This is the second set of the Burnette Power Rankings called the Preseason Momentum Rankings. This type of ranking is for preseason only and will be done again next year. I did not include the formula or process of the ranking due to its complexity and I plan to add further to it next year. However, the factors that determine the team’s Momentum score and projected record include:
· Five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed.
· Schedule Strength including home and away games.
· Recruiting during the offseason.
· Returning starters and returning quarterback.
· Coaches leaving (only successful coaches that left for desired positions or necessity are factored in but retirement does not qualify.)
The five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed are the most significant factors. I found in my extensive research of the last five college football seasons’ data that recruiting is a much more significant factor than returning starters or returning quarterbacks. Next year, I plan to do more research to see the effects of the coaching carousel. However, I noticed that the most glaring impact of a coaching change is if a coach leaves a program for a better job such as Brian Kelly did when leaving Cincinnati to go to Notre Dame. The Bearcats went from being 12-0 with Kelly in 2009 to 4-8 in 2010 without him.
This blog I just posted the SEC conference and I will post the other BCS conferences this weekend. I will also try to get some of the non BCS teams posted before the season starts. The first thing you may notice is that some teams have a higher Momentum score than teams with a better projected record. The projected record takes into account home, away, and neutral site scores that I developed. Also, teams may have a negative Momentum score as in Vanderbilt.
This is a non-bias formula ranking. For example, if I went by my own bias then I would have projected Arkansas with at least 10 or more wins since they are my favorite team, but they are projected at 8-4. However, from my analysis three of their four projected losses are close and any team from the SEC with a score above eight could have a chance to play in the BCS championship. Auburn came out of no where last season to win it. Overall, there were many closely projected games in the SEC. Ole Miss' record has two different projections due to their game with BYU being projected as a tie. Alabama is the only strong favorite. A couple of wins for Florida are projected to be very close and the same with a couple of the losses for LSU. The two big out of conference games in week one for the SEC in Boise State vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. LSU are both projected losses for the SEC.
Nothing to surprising about my picks, but I may change some before the season starts.These are my BCS conference champion predictions:
ACC: Florida State
Contenders: Florida State is almost everyone's preseason favorite for ACC champion, but Virginia Tech is the frontrunner to win the Coastal division and the conference overall this year should be solid.
Big East: West Virginia
Contenders: Pitt may be the next contender, but overall the conference looks bland coming into this season and West Virginia seems to be the only strong team in the conference.
Big 12: Oklahoma
Contenders: The Sooners are the clear favorite, but the Big 12 does have other contenders for the 2011 championship including Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and longshot Missouri.
Big 10: Wisconsin
Contenders: It looks as though Ohio State should finally have a down year so that leaves the field wide open. Nebraska may be the next favorite to win championship after Wisconsin and they should win the Legends division, but plenty others have a chance including Michigan State and Michigan.
Pac 12: Oregon
Contenders: With Andrew Luck returning, it makes Stanford a contender, but it will be difficult for them to duplicate last season with all of their other key losses. If USC was not under a ban, then they could possibly win the championship. The Trojans may end up with one of the better records in the Pac 12. Oregon has a wealth of talent and should win another championship this year, but off the field issues are now looming over the program that may have an effect.
SEC: Arkansas/ Alabama
Contenders: I listed two champions for this conference since I am somewhat bias on this selection since I'm a known Hog fan. I do believe the Razorbacks can win the SEC this season, but Alabama is the clear favorite among most others. However, the SEC is stacked with competition with the West having other stout contenders in LSU and Mississippi State as well as in the East division there are contenders in South Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Florida under new coach Will Muschamp.
1. Oklahoma2. Oregon3. Alabama4. Boise State5. Stanford6. Oklahoma State7. Florida State8. Arkansas9. LSU10. South Carolina11. TCU12. Ohio State13. Wisconsin14. Nebraska15. Texas A&M16. Mississippi State17. Michigan State18. Auburn19. Notre Dame20. Missouri21. Florida22. Virginia Tech23. USC24. West Virginia
The rankings are based on overall merit encompassing a variety of factors. The CFU Top 25 is not a prediction of other polls or of the season's final rankings. I will be posting the top 50 soon with further analysis and all rankings are still subject to change.
I also posted these rankings on a blog at http://www.hogblog.org/.
Cam Newton went number one as expected. I think it was a wasted pick, but Carolina may sell some more tickets. Hell, from the boos I heard at Newton they may sell more tickets if he fails. I'm sure plenty of college football fans would enjoy seeing him get knocked around in the NFL.
Five out of the top six players selected played in the SEC and a total of ten in the first round. Picks 2 thru 6 were some of the best selections in the draft: 2) Von Miller LB Texas A&M, 3) Marcell Dareus DT Alabama, 4) AJ Green WR Georgia, 5) Patrick Peterson CB LSU, 6) Julio Jones WR Alabama.
The first small shock was when former Mizzou teammate of Blaine Gabbert, Aldon Smith, was picked before Gabbert by San Francisco at seven. But the first real stunner came at pick eight when Jake Locker of Washington was selected by the Tennessee Titans. I think Locker is too inaccurate, but maybe I'm wrong since Gruden really loves him. Gabbert went to the Jaguars at 10 so the suspense of Blaine waiting was over then.
An even more unexpected stunner came at pick 12 with Florida State QB Christian Ponder going to the Vikings. Ponder was good passer for the Seminoles ,but he seems to have the injury bug. The importance of a signal caller in the NFL showed early in the Draft especially since four quarterbacks were selected in the top twelve picks and this was a down year for QB draft talent.
Nick Fairley slipped to pick 13 of Detroit. I'm unsure of Fairley and how his attitude will transition. If he lives up to draft expectations, then he should strive playing next to Suh. We'll see.
Baltimore had an awkward moment with the 26th pick when the draft clock expired and Kansas City ended up picking at 26. The Ravens were stalled by a potential trade, but they did select the 27th pick in time.
I was personally disappointed to see the Pittsburgh Steelers select Cameron Heyward of Ohio State. That's because the Steelers are my favorite NFL team and my favorite college team is Arkansas. Heyward strongly contributed to the victory for Ohio State over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. He's a talented player, but I don't want to root for him. Oh the conflicts of being both a college and NFL football fan.
Another thing, I understand Ingram is emotional about his father, but at least start bringing some tissues Mark.
Andy Dalton and Da Quan Bowers are a couple big names still left on the board. I'll be watching.