The College Football Universe Preseason Top 126 is now released. The ranking is simply based on which teams I perceive as the best coming into the 2013 season. This is not a prediction of the final season rankings and it is not based on strength of schedule.
CFU Preseason Top 126 Rank, Team, Last Season's Record 1. Alabama 13-1
2. Ohio State 12-0
3. Texas A&M 11-2
4. Louisville 11-2
5. Stanford 12-2
6. South Carolina 11-2
7. Georgia 12-2
8. Oregon 12-1
9. Clemson 11-2
10. Notre Dame 12-1
11. Florida 11-2
12. LSU 10-3
13. Ole Miss 7-6
14. Oklahoma 10-3
15. Northern Illinois 12-2
16. Nebraska 10-4
17. Northwestern 10-3
18. Texas 9-4
19. Michigan 8-5
20. Michigan State 7-6
21. Oregon State 9-4
22. Boise State 11-2
23. UCLA 9-5
24. Miami (FL) 7-5
25. Florida State 12-2
26. Utah State 11-2
27. USC 7-6
28. Arizona State 8-5
29. Kansas State 11-2
30. Wisconsin 8-6
31. Virginia Tech 7-6
32. BYU 8-5
33. Vanderbilt 9-4
34. Cincinnati 10-3
35. Arizona 8-5
36. Washington 7-6
37. San Jose State 11-2
38. Oklahoma State 8-5
39. TCU 7-6
40. Mississippi State 8-5
41. Auburn 3-9
42. North Carolina 8-4
43. Arkansas 4-8
44. Penn State 8-4
45. Rutgers 9-4
46. Baylor 8-5
47. ULM 8-5
48. Tulsa 11-3
49. Fresno State 9-4
50. San Diego State 9-4
51. Tennessee 5-7
52. UCF 10-4
53. Toledo 9-4
54. Bowling Green 8-5
55. Kent State 11-3
56. Texas Tech 8-5
57. Pittsburgh 6-7
58. North Carolina State 7-6
59. Iowa 4-8
60. Missouri 5-7
61. Ohio 9-4
62. Western Kentucky 7-6
63. California 3-9
64. Washington State 3-9
65. East Carolina 8-5
66. Marshall 5-7
67. Indiana 4-8
68. Ball State 9-4
69. Navy 8-5
70. Minnesota 6-7
71. Syracuse 8-5
72. West Virginia 7-6
73. Nevada 7-6
74. Purdue 6-7
75. Air Force 6-7
76. Rice 7-6
77. Georgia Tech 7-7
78. Maryland 4-8
79. Wake Forest 5-7
80. Virginia 4-8
81. Louisiana 9-4
82. SMU 7-6
83. Iowa State 6-7
84. Houston 5-7
85. Utah 5-7
86. Arkansas State 10-3
87. Middle Tennessee 8-4
88. Central Michigan 7-6
89. Temple 4-7
90. Duke 6-7
91. Connecticut 5-7
92. Louisiana Tech 9-3
93. South Florida 3-9
94. Troy 5-7
95. Army 2-10
96. Illinois 2-10
97. Kentucky 2-10
98. Buffalo 4-8
99. Wyoming 4-8
100. Colorado State 4-8
101. Boston College 2-10
102. UTSA 8-4
103. Memphis 4-8
104. Miami (OH) 4-8
105. UAB 3-9
106. North Texas 4-8
107. Colorado 1-11
108. New Mexico 4-9
109. Texas State 4-8
110. Hawaii 3-9
111. UNLV 2-11
112. UTEP 3-9
113. Old Dominion 11-2*
114. Eastern Michigan 2-10
115. Western Michigan 4-8
116. Southern Miss 0-12
117. Tulane 2-10
118. Florida Atlantic 3-9
119. FIU 3-9
120. South Alabama 2-11
121. Kansas 1-11
122. Massachusetts 1-11
123. Akron 1-11
124. Idaho 1-11
125. New Mexico State 1-11
126. Georgia State 1-10*
*FCS schedule in 2012.
Other Articles: Follow College Football Universe on Twitter & Like us on Facebook.
Here is a revision of the Fair Ranking System standings that I completed before the 2012-13 bowl season. I tweaked it to include the full records of FCS and non-FCS teams in the calculation of the FBS teams' true wins. It was one of the few tweaks that I mentioned as possibly implementing in a previous article on the FRS. I only revised the top 45 teams that were ranked before (not all 124 were recalculated). For the most part, there were no drastic changes in the FRS top 45, but there were some significant shifts. Generally speaking, most FCS opponents have way more losses than the upper echelon of college football so some of the recalculations did not make a huge difference. The only change in the top four was Stanford sliding down to No. 3 with Florida moving up to replace it at No. 2. The Georgia Bulldogs made one of the largest jumps in the upper tier after the revision, from No. 12 to 8. On the flip side, Nebraska dropped from 8 to 12 after the adjustment, but many already felt they were overrated in the rankings anyways. The Cornhuskers were only ranked No. 23 in the AP Poll and No. 16 in the BCS at that time. After the tweak, Alabama held at No. 5 which still would have placed them in a hypothetical four team playoff since Ohio State was under a bowl ban for the 2012-13 season. Alabama played a very weak FCS opponent in West Carolina; the Catamounts only beat one team being Mars Hill, a non-FCS Division II opponent. The Tide might not play such a weak FCS team if the FRS is a factor. One more slightly decent opponent would have easily put them in the top four. While there are some singular differences, overall, the teams in the AP Top 25 and the FRS Top 25 are remarkably close after the revision; 24 out of the top 25 teams are in both rankings. Also, 9 of the top 10 FRS teams placed in the AP top 10 and four of the top five in the FRS also in the AP top five. Remember, the FRS is not designed to be bias against any team or conference. It is meant to be a mathematical standing that encompasses a team's body of work while offering a system of transparency. The revised top 45 is at the end of the article along with tiebreakers. Explanation of the Fair Ranking System The following statistical measures are included in the Fair Ranking System (true wins statistic is used for the rankings):
True wins - total wins minus total losses Total wins - team's wins, beaten opponents' wins, and beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins. Total losses - team's losses, lost to opponents' losses, and lost to opponents' of lost to opponents losses.
Other stats referred to in the FRS: Beaten opponents' wins (BOW) Lost to opponents' losses (LOL) *True wins is the best statistic listed to determine what team has earned their rank. Other Computer Rankings If you think the mathematical formula for the FRS is complicated, then you should take a look at some other computer rankings. A major issue with the BCS computer rankings is transparency, but there is a BCS formula that is available to the public, the Colley Matrix Rankings. It is a quasi power ranking that is difficult for a layman to decipher. The significant difference between the FRS and Colley Matrix is that the FRS is a mathematical standing system, but Colley's is a prediction. Otherwise, the FRS is more about having a system that rewards teams for their body of work, not a Nostradamus system of forecasting the best teams. IHSA Football Playoff Qualification System Some of the statistics used in the Fair Ranking System are not totally foreign when determining qualifiers in other football playoffs. For example, the Illinois High School Association uses similar stats to determine qualifiers. Teams' wins and combined wins of defeated opponents are a part of the IHSA qualification system as well as they are used in the FRS. A team's ranking in the Associated Press poll also has no effect on the IHSA playoff seeding.
Here is some abbreviated information from the IHSA website regarding the selection process of the 256 playoff teams:
All conference champions with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. The remaining schools are sorted by three categories:- First, by total wins
- Second, by combined wins of all opponents
- Third, by combined wins of all defeated opponents
(See example to the right) Tiebreakers: - Head-to-head competition (if the teams have met)
- Number of teams played that qualified for the playoffs
- Number of wins by teams played that qualified for the playoffs
- Coin flip
Grouping & Seeding- Total wins
- Combined wins of all opponents
- Combined wins of defeated opponents
Tiebreakers: - Head-to-head record (if exactly two teams are tied)
- Random selection by computer
| | Fair Ranking System Top 45 | 1. Notre Dame 488 2. Florida 468 3. Stanford 445 4. Ohio State 399 5. Alabama 390 6. Kansas State 378 7. Oregon 373 8. Georgia 341 9. LSU 338 10. Oklahoma 336 11. South Carolina 335 12. Nebraska 322 12. Texas A&M 322 14. Florida State 270 15. Clemson 257 16. Northern Illinois 255 17. Oregon State 241 18. San Jose State 227 19. Kent State 213 20. UCLA 206 21. Utah State 201 22. Cincinnati 182 23. Northwestern 178 24. Texas 177 25. Louisville 176 25. Michigan 176 27. Rutgers 165 28. TCU 162 28. Wisconsin 162 30. Arizona 160 30. San Diego State 160 32. Boise State 156 33. Toledo 155 34. Arkansas State 154 34. Ball State 154 36. Washington 150 37. Tulsa 149 38. Mississippi State 148 39. Baylor 147 40. Penn State 143 41. Fresno State 140 42. West Virginia 138 43. Oklahoma State 133 44. Louisiana Tech 123 45. USC 116
*Revised to include FCS teams' records in calculations. Rankings are for the end of the regular season and before the bowl season. | Justin Burnette on ESPN Radio, "You're in a poker game every Saturday night." (about current BCS system) | Tiebreakers Another tweak for the FRS that I wrote about last December is a tiebreaker system for the FRS rankings. Here are factors that I have determined thus far to break a tie in the rankings. - Head to head results
- Head to head competition
- Beaten opponents' wins
- Lost to opponents' losses
- Margin of victory
Other Articles: Follow College Football Universe on Twitter & Like us on Facebook.
Coaches Trophy awarded to the BCS National Champion. All 124 teams ranked at the end of the article. | Jimbo Fisher is right in that we need to change how we pick teams, but humans may not be the best method. | The upcoming four team playoff will haul in loads of money and additional popularity for college football, but it could easily open the door wide open for further prejudice in the sport. The four teams for the new playoff to begin in 2014 are to be picked by a selection committee. As long as qualifiers for a playoff are determined by pre-made contracts and the "eye" test done by people, it is a system of prejudice to decide playoff and bowl teams. That is not to say that the BCS computers need brought back in 2014. The computers are/were equally corrupt due to the secrecy and over calculation that leads to some very strange rankings. A reasonable person realizes that a transparent mathematical system is the only fair way to rank teams in terms of worthiness for post season play. And that is why I developed the Fair Ranking System. The Fair Ranking System is all based on who beats who and who loses to who. Points of margin are not used as a factor in ranking, but I would consider it for a tiebreaker. Using points of margin, even with diminishing returns, is not the best way to determine the most deserving team. The "experts" that insist on points of margin being included also try to predict the future with their rankings and they create their formulas to make the outcome more like some kind of quasi power ranking. Fans have been bamboozled into believing margin of victory should play a factor when no other major team competitive sport uses it to determine qualifiers for a playoff (other than tiebreakers). The Fair Ranking System is simpler and transparent. Most importantly in my opinion, it is the best known ranking at determining the most deserving team depending on who they beat and lost to. The "eye" test in college football leads to who the voters want to see play rather than who is most deserving. As ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit stated in a ridiculous rant during the BCS selection show, "...Georgia and Florida and Texas A&M and Oklahoma. All of us want to see those teams in games that matter in the BCS Bowl games and you're going to give us NORTHERN ILLINOIS!" Under the Fair Ranking System, Northern Illinois is ranked below the other teams Herbstreit talked about, but that is not the point that I am attempting to make. With either the Fair Ranking System or BCS Standings combined with the upcoming 2014 format, Northern Illinois would have still qualified for a host bowl. Herbstreit also said, "thank goodness we are moving towards a new system in 2014." News flash to Herbie before he gets all riled up when the 2014 bowl selection show rolls around, Northern Illinois would still have been placed in one of the new system's bowls. -Come on do a little research Kirk. You are an ESPN analyst.- During his pre-mentioned rant, Herbstreit never spoke of the inclusion of lower ranked Big Ten and Big East teams in this year's BCS Bowls as well as he never talked about the top ranked team from the "group of five" non-contracted conferences to be included in the system to replace the BCS in 2014 (see details below). Even though everyone was aware of the rules in place for Northern Illinois to bust the BCS (or everyone should have been aware), pundits such as Herbstreit acted like grade schoolers in their criticism of Northern Illinois making a BCS Bowl, because they wanted to "see" other teams play. Rules are put in place for fairness, not top television ratings. The deals in place and the sport itself will bring in enough ratings and money in the long run. Just imagine if the NFL determined its post season teams by who everyone wants to "see" the most. It's crazy talk! Northern Illinois playing Florida State in the Orange Bowl will not ruin college football. Actually, the Seminoles are only ranked two spots above the Huskies in the FRS. The bowl bans and decline of eligible teams in the Big Ten as well as a low ranked Big East champion hurt the BCS Bowls this season more than the rule that allowed the inclusion of NIU. The 2014 system would have still allowed Wisconsin and Northern Illinois into the six bowls under the new format, but not Louisville. Human voters on a committee can easily bring their biases to the table. For example, it appeared in the last USA Today Coaches Poll this season that the Big 12 coaches let their bias interfere with how they ranked teams competing for BCS slots. Also as noted by comments on the recent CFU article, other coaches in past seasons have been accused of manipulating their votes to favor their team or conference. The only awkward looking rating in the Fair Ranking System is Nebraska ranked over Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and others. When taking a closer look, overall the Cornhuskers actually had a statistically difficult schedule and more quality wins than the Bulldogs or Aggies with victories over seven teams with six or more wins. Georgia and Texas A&M all defeated just four bowl eligible teams each. Oklahoma did defeat seven bowl teams, but their best win was against Texas and when you take a good look at their victories, they are very comparable to Nebraska; both teams are nearly tied in the Fair Ranking System with just one true win separating them. Not to say that I do not think Georgia, Oklahoma, or another team is better than Nebraska, but this type of ranking is not about my perception of the best teams or how much I want to see a team play in a bowl game. Worth mentioning, a couple tweaks that I am considering, listed later in this post, may have slightly changed the rankings. In an amazing comparison, 23 of the 25 teams ranked in the Fair Ranking System were also ranked in the last AP Top 25 Poll. The two AP ranked teams left out of the FRS Top 25, Utah State and Boise State, are tied for 26th in the FRS. The two teams not in the AP Top 25, but in the FRS Top 25, Texas and TCU, did receive votes for the AP Poll. Also, 8 of the top 10 teams in the FRS are also ranked in the AP top 10 and four of the top five FRS teams are in the AP top five. No matter if you agree with the Fair Ranking System or not, just imagine having a system that no one would have to guess about and everyone would know the play in scenarios near the end of the season for the top six bowls and playoff. In 2014, other than the contracted bowls, it will all be guessing until the selection committee decides the teams for the playoff after the end of the season. Before the rankings below, there is additional information on the 2014 post season format and a four team playoff for the 2012 season according to the Fair Ranking System. Whether the FRS should determine all the teams or not in the playoff and bowls, I believe it should be used in some way for the 2014 system. At the very least, it is a good mathematical gauge for ranking teams based on their wins and losses. Some Terms Agreed Upon for Official Four Team College Football Playoff - Lock-in a four team seeded playoff. The teams that will play will be chosen by a selection committee. - Create three "contract bowls" and three "host bowls" as part of the post- season format. The highest-ranked champion from the five conferences that are not in contract bowls will be guaranteed a spot in a host bowl. - Share revenue, for the first time in college football history, based on academic performance as part of the funding formula. - Share revenue with a higher portion of revenues going to the conferences of the four teams that qualify for the playoff and participate in the other games. Distributions will also be made to conferences whose teams don't qualify for either a contract or host bowl. - Begin hiring staff so the new structure can begin operating. Source: Fox News Other Information on 2014 Post Season | Contract Bowls Rose (Pac-12 vs Big Ten) Sugar (SEC vs Big 12) Orange (ACC vs Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame)
Host Bowls (Not Official) Fiesta Chick-fil-A Cotton
| *Two of the six bowls will be the semi-final games for the National Championship. *Top ranked team from five non-contracted conferences to play in a host bowl also known as the "group of five". Host bowls have not been officially determined. Source: ESPN | Four Team Playoff in 2012 with Fair Ranking System 1. Notre Dame 4. Alabama *Ohio State would not have qualified for post season due to the bowl ban.
| 2. Stanford 3. Florida | Explanation of the Fair Ranking System & Possible Tweaks (Geek Stuff) On an earlier post is the full explanation of the Fair Ranking System. The only differences in this calculation from the previous method is that if an FBS team is winless at the end of the season, then their record will not show one win when calculating a team's true wins and the fair score was not implemented this time. I have basically scrapped the fair score for now since the true wins method of the Fair Ranking System seems to be the most accurate in deeming the most deserving teams of rank. There are a few minor mathematical quirks that still need worked out. Some parts of the calculation that could be tweaked slightly are for FCS teams, winless teams, undefeated teams, number of games per team, and tiebreakers. I thought about giving one win and one loss to winless and undefeated teams respectively when tallying the true wins, but I decided not to apply it this time and am unsure if I want to implement it. FCS teams are also given a generic record, but this could be adjusted more proportionally depending on each FCS school's season performance. Another issue is that some teams play 12 games while others play 13 due to a conference championship or a game at Hawaii so I am considering a tweak for that as well. Finally, here are all 124 FBS teams ranked mathematically according to the Fair Ranking System including teams in transition. Georgia State will be ranked once they schedule more FBS opponents. Bowl games already played were not calculated. I checked over the calculations, but if there are any mathematical errors found, please let me know. Fair Ranking System All 124 FBS Teams Rated *According to true wins. | 1. Notre Dame 488
2. Stanford 445
3. Florida 437
4. Ohio State 399
5. Alabama 380
6. Kansas State 365
7. Oregon 356
8. Nebraska 319
9. Oklahoma 318
10. LSU 300
11. South Carolina 297
12. Georgia 293
13. Texas A&M 286
14. Clemson 250
15. Florida State 244
16. Oregon State 235
17. Northern Illinois 209
18. UCLA 206
19. San Jose State 203
20. Texas 177
21. Michigan 176
22. Kent State 174
23. Northwestern 171
24. Louisville 163
25. TCU 161
26. Boise State 156
26. Utah State 156
28. Ball State 154
28. Cincinnati 154
30. Penn State 143
30. Tulsa 143
32. Arizona 140
32. Wisconsin 140
34. Arkansas State 138
35. Washington 137
36. Rutgers 136
36. San Diego State 136
38. Fresno State 134
39. Oklahoma State 129
40. Toledo 122
41. USC 116
42. Louisiana Tech 114
42. Mississippi State 114
44. Baylor 111
45. West Virginia 109
46. Vanderbilt 107
47. Iowa State 95
48. Michigan State 89
49. Middle Tennessee 81
49. North Carolina 81
51. Navy 78
52. Texas Tech 76
53. Syracuse 69
54. Louisiana-Lafayette 67
55. Miami FL 65
55. UCF 65
57. Louisiana-Monroe 57
58. BYU 51
59. Missouri 48
60. Ohio 45
61. Ole Miss 44
62. Arizona State 33
63. East Carolina 26
64. Virginia Tech 23
65. Duke 19
66. Georgia Tech 18
67. North Carolina State 15
68. Bowling Green 13
69. Tennessee 11
70. Iowa 3
71. Arkansas -4
72. Purdue -7
73. Western Kentucky -8
74. Pittsburgh -16
75. Minnesota -24
76. UTSA -31
77. Wake Forest -47
78. Nevada -53
79. Central Michigan -63
80. Auburn -64
81. SMU -67
81. Utah -67
83. Miami OH -94
84. California -100
85. Air Force -101
86. Troy -104
87. Buffalo -107
87. Indiana -107
89. Kentucky -108
89. Virginia -108
91. Rice -109
92. Marshall -113
93. Connecticut -117
94. Houston -120
95. Colorado State -126
95. North Texas -126
97. Wyoming -130
98. Temple -131
99. Texas State -161
100. Eastern Michigan -162
100. South Florida -162
102. Memphis -163
103. Maryland -173
104. Western Michigan -174
105. Washington State -176
106. Army -183
106. Illinois -183
108. Kansas -188
109. UTEP -204
110. Florida Atlantic -205
111. FIU -217
112. Boston College -219
113. Idaho -226
114. Colorado -228
115. Hawaii -232
116. UAB -244
117. Tulane -272
118. New Mexico -290
119. UNLV -305
120. Akron -312
121. Massachusetts -315
122. South Alabama -325
123. New Mexico State -351
124. Southern Miss -388
| Follow College Football Universe on Twitter & Like us on Facebook. |
| Alabama vs. Notre Dame BCS Championship Hype Video | | The final college football matchup for the 2012-13 season, BCS No. 1 Notre Dame vs BCS No.2 Alabama, definitely brings back an old school feel to college football. Most experts are picking Alabama to win, but many are predicting it will be a closer game than the opening line spread. Both teams in the 2013 BCS National Championship have been battle tested this season. Notre Dame had to win two games in overtime and a slew of other close games. The Fighting Irish only allowed one goal-line rushing touchdown all season which came against the Sooners. The most rememberable goal line stand came against Stanford along with controversy. Three of the final five games for Alabama were tightly knitted. The Tide's games against LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia were all decided by five points or less. Alabama went 2-1 versus those opponents with the only loss coming against Texas A&M and Heisman QB Johnny Manziel. Each team has a rich college football history. Alabama has won two of the last three BCS national championships, but Notre Dame has not won a national title since 1988. Despite the many other high-octane spread offenses in college football, the Tide and Fighting Irish have etched their way to the top this season by way of defense and top caliber linemen on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said at a recent press conference, “And in keeping with the venue where we are, you have two blue chip stocks that are going to go against each other." (DecaturDaily.com)The Fighting Irish are obviously led by their defensive front and star linebacker Manti Te'o who acquired a hoard of awards this season. Despite the stellar defense of the Tide, Alabama's top talent is on the offensive line spotlighted by a trio of soon to be NFL players in Barrett Jones, DJ Fluker, and Chance Warmack. Alabama looks to have the edge on Notre Dame in just about every category, but that does not necessarily mean they will be the victor. As I often tell others, remember this is college football. When there are big games between closely matched teams, anything can happen. The SEC has won six straight national titles, but historically speaking, the Tide are just 1-5 against the Irish. I figure the luck of the Irish will be the curse of the SEC. Why? Because this is college football. Is this the year that the SEC goes down? ESPN picked the Trojans this preseason, but the luck of the Irish may be the curse of the SEC. | | Links to each team's Fox Sports page are included for additional stats and information. There is also an Upset Alerts preview before the non-BCS bowl scheduled listed below. Other than the BCS Championship game shown first, BCS and non-BCS bowls listed below are in chronological order. BCS Bowls | Notre Dame Stats Offense Points per game: 26.8 (77th) Yards per game: 421.3 (49th) Passing yards per game: 218.8 (77th) Rushing yards per game: 202.5 (27th) Defense Points allowed per game: 10.3 (1st) Yards allowed per game: 288.1 (6th) Passing yards allowed per game: 194.8 (21st) Rushing yards allowed per game: 93.3 (5th) Top Wins: Michigan, Stanford, at Oklahoma, & at USC Losses: none
| Alabama Stats Offense Points per game: 38.5 (15th) Yards per game: 439.1 (40th) Passing yards per game: 214.5 (85th) Rushing yards per game: 224.6 (20th) Defense Points allowed per game: 10.7 (2nd) Yards allowed per game: 246.0 (1st) Passing yards allowed per game: 166.2 (6th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 79.8 (1st) Top Wins: vs. Michigan, Mississippi State, at LSU, & vs. Georgia Losses: Texas A&M
| | Stanford Stats Offense Points per game: 28.5 (70th) Yards per game: 376.8 (85th) Passing yards per game: 203.5 (94th) Rushing yards per game: 173.3 (52nd) Defense Points allowed per game: 17.5 (14th) Yards allowed per game: 338.9 (21st) Passing yards allowed per game: 251.2 (84th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 87.7 (3rd) Top Wins: USC, Oregon State, Oregon, & UCLA (twice) Losses: at Washington & at Notre Dame
| Wisconsin Stats Offense Points per game: 30.8 (52nd) Yards per game: 400.4 (62nd) Passing yards per game: 162.6 (115th) Rushing yards per game: 237.8 (12th) Defense Points allowed per game: 19.1 (20th) Yards allowed per game: 320.9 (13th) Passing yards allowed per game: 196.5 (24th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 124.5 (22nd) Top Wins: vs. Nebraska Losses: at Oregon State, at Nebraska, Michigan State Ohio State, & at Penn State
| | Florida State Stats Offense Points per game: 39.9 (14th) Yards per game: 465.9 (23rd) Passing yards per game: 262.9 (43rd) Rushing yards per game: 203.0 (25th) Defense Points allowed per game: 15.1 (7th) Yards allowed per game: 253.4 (2nd) Passing yards allowed per game: 160.8 (3rd) Rushing yards allowed per game: 92.6 (4th) Top Wins: Clemson Losses: at NC State & Florida
| Northern Illinois Stats Offense Points per game: 40.8 (9th) Yards per game: 485.8 (15th) Passing yards per game: 235.6 (60th) Rushing yards per game: 250.2 (9th) Defense Points allowed per game: 19.0 (18th) Yards allowed per game: 356.7 (35th) Passing yards allowed per game: 217.7 (41st) Rushing yards allowed per game: 139 (32nd) Top Wins: vs. Kent State Losses: Iowa
| | Florida Stats Offense Points per game: 26.8 (75th) Yards per game: 338.0 (104th) Passing yards per game: 143.9 (118th) Rushing yards per game: 194.1 (35th) Defense Points allowed per game: 12.9 (3rd) Yards allowed per game: 282.6 (5th) Passing yards allowed per game: 186.0 (15th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 96.6 (6th) Top Wins: LSU, South Carolina, & at Florida State Losses: vs. Georgia
| Louisville Stats Offense Points per game: 31.0 (49th) Yards per game: 425.7 (47th) Passing yards per game: 298.6 (24th) Rushing yards per game: 127.1 (100th) Defense Points allowed per game: 23.8 (38th) Yards allowed per game: 344.8 (24th) Passing yards allowed per game: 193.8 (19th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 151.1 (53rd) Top Wins: Cincinnati & Rutgers Losses: at Syracuse & Connecticut
| | Kansas State Stats Offense Points per game: 40.7 (10th) Yards per game: 410.4 (55th) Passing yards per game: 212.1 (86th) Rushing yards per game: 198.3 (33rd) Defense Points allowed per game: 21.1 (24th) Yards allowed per game: 375.3 (94th) Passing yards allowed per game: 255.8 (94th) Rushing yards allowed per game: 119.6 (17th) Top Wins: Oklahoma & Texas Losses: at Baylor
| Oregon Stats Offense Points per game: 50.8 (2nd) Yards per game: 550.1 (4th) Passing yards per game: 226.8 (67th) Rushing yards per game: 323.3 (3rd) Defense Points allowed per game: 22.0 (26th) Yards allowed per game: 381.8 (48th) Passing yards allowed per game: 235.8 (62nd) Rushing yards allowed per game: 146.0 (47th) Top Wins: USC & Oregon State Losses: Stanford
| Upset Alerts I am intensely thorough in covering college football and the parity, a word often used in this sport, is growing more and more each season. Basically, all the favorites in BCS Bowl games could lose in an upset, but of course, the trick is figuring out which ones. I would say that Notre Dame, Louisville, and Northern Illinois are all underdogs with a good chance to win, but I could also see the Cardinals and Huskies being blown out which is what many other experts and bettors believe to be the outcome. Northern Illinois and Florida State both had late season coaching departures. NIU lost head coach Dave Doeren to NC State at the same position and former FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops took the head coaching position at Kentucky (Coaching Carousel). The Seminoles are thought of as the more talented team and have a statistically top notch defense, but the Huskies should have a larger chip on their shoulder. This game could end in a blowout victory for Florida State or a dramatic close win for Northern Illinois. Louisville is a talented team, but young which is one reason for the close games and upset losses this season. Florida has done a great job of winning, but not always impressively. UF just barely managed to eke out a victory against Louisiana-Lafayette and the talent of the Cardinals matches up better with the Gators than most give them credit. If highly prospected QB Teddy Bridgewater can move the ball for Louisville with accurate passes, then the Cardinals can pull it off. But if the Florida defense led by safety Matt Elam keeps him in check, the running game and defense of Louisville will have trouble picking up the slack. Oklahoma is slightly favored against Texas A&M, but I am picking the Aggies to win the Cotton Bowl. It has been some time since the Sooners have won a big game as well as I am just not confident in quarterback Landry Jones as a clutch player. And really, who wouldn't pick Aggies QB Johnny "Football" Manziel. Jones has thrown eight interceptions over the last eight games of the season while Manziel threw just two picks in the last five games. This should be a fun bowl to watch. The Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl features match ups with opening lines under double digits. But I still believe that Oregon should have no problem handling Kansas State. If the Ducks get an early lead as they do so often, the Wildcats will have difficulty keeping up with their style. Stanford should also take care of Wisconsin, but the Badgers did look good in the Big Ten Championship. Wisconsin running back Montee Ball will need another great outing to give his team a chance, but Stanford has the third best rated defense in rushing yards allowed per game. In many ways, bowl games are highly unpredictable, because it largely depends on which team "shows up" to play. I am predicting some big upsets since I can be a rebel at times, but I would only take my Irish pick to Vegas, especially to beat the spread. Non-BCS Bowls Dec. 15, New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, ESPN, 1 PMNevada Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5) Opening Line: Wildcats by 8
Dec. 15, Famous Idaho Potato, Boise, ID, ESPN, 4:30 PM Toledo Rockets (9-3) vs. 22 Utah State Aggies (10-2) Opening Line: Aggies by 8
Dec. 20, Poinsettia, San Diego, CA, ESPN, 8 PM BYU Cougars (7-5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) Opening Line: Cougars by 2.5
Dec. 21, Beef o' Brady's, St. Petersburg, FL, ESPN, 7:30 PM Ball State Cardinals (9-3) vs. UCF Knights (9-4) Opening Line: Knights by 7
Dec. 22, New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, ESPN, noon Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4) vs. East Carolina Pirates (7-5) Opening Line: Ragin' Cajuns by 4.5
Dec. 22, Maaco, Las Vegas, NV, ESPN, 3:30 PM Washington Huskies (7-5) vs. 19 Boise State Broncos (10-2) Opening Line: Broncos by 7.5
Dec. 24, Hawaii, Honolulu. HA, ESPN, 8 PM SMU Mustangs (6-6) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) Opening Line: Bulldogs by 11.5
Dec. 26, Little Caesar's Pizza, Detroit, MI, ESPN, 3 PM Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) Opening Line: Hilltoppers by 6
Dec. 27, Military, Washington, DC, ESPN, 3 PM Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) vs. 24 San Jose State Spartans (10-2) Opening Line: Spartans by 8
Dec. 27, Belk, Charlotte, NC, ESPN, 6:30 PM Duke Blue Devils (6-6) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) Opening Line: Bearcats by 10.5
Dec. 27, Holiday, San Diego, CA, ESPN, 9:45 PM 17 UCLA Bruins (9-4) vs. Baylor Bears (7-5) Opening Line: Bears by 1
Dec. 28, Independence, Shreveport, LA, ESPN, 2 PM Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (8-4) vs. Ohio Bobcats (8-4) Opening Line: Warhawks by 6
Dec. 28, Russell Athletic, Orlando, FL, ESPN, 5:30 PM Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) Opening Line: Even
Dec. 28, Meineke Car Care, Houston, TX, ESPN, 9 PM Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) Opening Line: Red Raiders by 13
Dec. 29, Armed Forces, Fort Worth Texas, TX, ESPN, 11:45 AM Rice Owls (6-6) vs. Air Force Falcons (6-6) Opening Line: Owls by 1
Dec. 29, Kraft Fight Hunger, San Francisco, CA, ESPN2, 4 PM Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) vs. Navy Midshipmen (8-4) Opening Line: Sun Devils by 14.5
Dec. 29, Pinstripe, Bronx, NY, ESPN, 3:15 PM West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5) vs. Syracuse Orange (7-5) Opening Line: Mountaineers by 4
Dec. 29, Alamo, San Antonio, TX, ESPN, 6:45 PM 23 Texas Longhorns (8-4) vs. 13 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) Opening Line: Beavers by 1.5
Dec. 29, Buffalo Wild Wings, Tempe, AZ, ESPN, 10:15 PM TCU Horned Frogs (7-5) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-6) Opening Line: Horned Frogs by 1
Dec. 31, Music City, Nashville, TN, ESPN, noon Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) vs. NC State Wolfpack (7-5) Opening Line: Commodores by 5.5
Dec. 31, Sun, El Paso, TX, CBS, 2 PM Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) vs. USC Trojans (7-5) Opening Line: Trojans by 10
Dec. 31, Liberty, Memphis, TN, ESPN, 3:30 PM Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (10-3) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) Opening Line: Golden Hurricanes by 3
Dec. 31, Chick-fil-A, Atlanta, GA, ESPN, 7:30 PM 14 Clemson Tigers (10-2) vs. 8 LSU Tigers (10-2) Opening Line: LSU Tigers by 3.5
Jan. 1, Gator, Jacksonville, FL, ESPN2, noon 20 Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) Opening Line: Bulldogs by 2
Jan. 1, Heart of Dallas, Dallas, TX, ESPNU, noon Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) Opening Line: Cowboys by 17.5
Jan. 1, Outback, Tampa, FL. ESPN, 1 PM 18 Michigan Wolverines (8-4) vs. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) Opening Line: Gamecocks by 4.5
Jan. 1, Capital One, Orlando, FL, ABC, 1 PM 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) vs. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) Opening Line: Bulldogs by 8.5
Jan. 4, Cotton, Arlington, TX, Fox, 8 PM 9 Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) vs. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) Opening Line: Sooners by 3Sports Illustrated Pick: Oklahoma CBS Sports Pick: Texas A&M College Football Universe Pick: Texas A&M Jan. 5, BBVA Compass, Birmingham, AL, ESPN, 1 PM Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) Opening Line: Rebels by 2
Jan. 6, GoDaddy.com, Mobile, AL, ESPN, 9 PM 25 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) Opening Line: Even Sports Illustrated picks are from the BCS Bowl Preview Special Issue magazine. Follow College Football Universe on Facebook & Twitter
The Lou Groza Award Watch List for the top college football place-kicker was announced Wednesday by the Palm Beach County Sports Commission. The award is named after Hall of Fame kicker Lou Groza who played for the Ohio State Buckeyes and 21 years for the Cleveland Browns. Florida kicker Caleb Sturgis is an early frontrunner for the award and is also a Phil Steele Preseason All-American. As a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, he was 22 of 26 (84.6 percent) for field goals. His only misses were from 40 yards or farther (9 of 13) and he was perfect on point after attempts. However, 18 semifinalists including two finalists from last season return so there is plenty of competition for the 2012 award. The Ray Guy Award Watch List for the nation’s top collegiate punter was also announced Wednesday by the Augusta Sports Council. The award is named after former All-American punter Ray Guy which played at Southern Mississippi and for the Oakland Raiders. Australian American punter Brad Wing of LSU could be in the running again for the award by the end of the season. He was one of the semifinalists last year and punted 27 of his 59 career punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line with only five touchbacks. Last season's winner Ryan Allen of Louisiana Tech returns and seven other semifinalists from last year are also on the list . You can find more information about the Lou Groza award at LouGrozaAward.com and the Ray Guy Award at RayGuy.net or AugustaSportsCouncil.org.Lou Groza Award Preseason Watch List: Drew Alleman, LSU Brett Baer, Louisiana Drew Basil, Ohio State Tyler Bitancurt, West Virginia Maikon Bonani, USF Chris Boswell, Rice Chandler Catanzaro, Clemson Dan Conroy, Michigan State Mitch Ewald, Indiana Anthony Fera, Penn State Andrew Furney, Washington State Brendan Gibbons, Michigan Jack Griffin, FIU Andre Heidari, USC Parker Herrington, Air Force Zach Hocker, Arkansas Dustin Hopkins, Florida State Michael Hunnicutt, Oklahoma Ty Long, UAB Brett Maher, Nebraska Craig McIntosh, Kentucky Mike Meyer, Iowa Jimmy Newman, Wake Forest Cody Parkey, Auburn Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State Jeremy Shelley, Alabama Caleb Sturgis, Florida Matt Weller, Ohio Jake Wieclaw, Miami Jordan Williamson, Stanford Ray Guy Award Preseason Watch List: Will Atterberry, North Texas Ryan Allen, Louisiana Tech Tyler Bennett, Utah State Dalton Botts, Miami Dylan Breeding, Arkansas Ian Campbell, UTEP Tyler Campbell, Ole Miss Steven Clark, Auburn Bobby Cowan, Idaho Ron Doherty, Kansas Richard Kent, Vanderbilt Pete Kontodiakos, Colorado State Richie Leone, Houston Jeff Locke, UCLA Brett Maher, Nebraska Pat O’Donnell, Cincinnati Darragh O’Neill, Colorado Jackson Rice, Oregon Brian Schmiedebusch, Bowling Green Sean Sellwood, Utah Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State Riley Stephenson, BYU Kirby Van Der Kamp, Iowa State Harrison Waid, San Jose State Brad Wing, LSU
Here are Spring game quarterback statistics and notes for all SEC teams . Stats may be off some due to limited stat recording of Spring games. Top 5 Passing Yards1.Tyler Wilson Arkansas 467 2. Maxwell Smith Kentucky 353 3. Tyler Russell Mississippi State 312 4. AJ McCarron Alabama 304 5. Zach Mettenberger LSU 272 West- AlabamaAJ McCarron 29/42, 304 yds, 2 TDs, 3 Ints Phillip Sims, 9/12, 135 yds, 1 TD Philip Ely, 10/18, 83 yds, 1 TD *ESPN: "At the end of the day it's for the fans and we just want to kind of make it fun for them and make some crazy plays at the same time that we probably wouldn't do in a real game," McCarron said. "Coach always says, 'Just have fun,' and I had a lot of fun today." Arkansas Tyler Wilson 31/41, 467 yds, 2 TDs Brandon Mitchell 8/13, 72 yds (White), 30 yds, 1 TD (Red) *AP:The performance also left no doubt that the near future at Arkansas is in good hands with both Wilson and running back Knile Davis. Auburn Kiehl Frazier 7/9, 92 yds Clint Moseley 5/6, 62 yds Zeke Pike 5/11, 48 yds Tate O'Connor 0/1 *ESPN: Frazier finished 7-of-9 for 92 yards and showed off his ability to scramble around and make plays. Still, Chizik said the quarterback competition would extend into the summer. Clint Moseley was plagued by a sore throwing shoulder for much of the spring. LSU Zach Mettenberger 14/25, 272 yds, 2 TDs, 2 Ints *ESPN: "We're definitely going to be aggressive this coming season," Mettenberger said. "But we're going to do whatever we can to win ball games." Mississippi State Tyler Russell 24/43, 312 yds, 2 TDs Dak Prescott 295 yds, 1 TD *ESPN: It's obvious the Bulldogs have tweaked their offense to take advantage of Russell's ability to throw the ball from the pocket, and they threw it quite a bit this spring. Ole MissBo Wallace 16/26, 240 yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int Barry Brunetti 4/10, 62 yds, 14 rush, 136 rush yds *Bleacher Report: The quarterback position has been up for grabs this spring, but Bo Wallace grabbed control of the race Saturday afternoon.Texas A&MJameill Showers 20/31, 203 yds, 2 TDs Johnny Manziel 13/27, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int *ESPN: Both quarterbacks had their moments, but there were also times when the offense stalled once it crossed the 50. Overall, sophomore Jameill Showers probably had the better spring, but offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said he wasn't ready to make a decision and that redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel remained in the hunt.East-Florida Jacoby Brissett 9/16, 233 yds, 2 TDs Jeff Driskel 12/14, 147 yds, 1 TD(Run) *AP: Florida's quarterback competition will continue in the fall - and without a front-runner - after Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel failed to separate themselves during four weeks of practice and Saturday's spring game.Georgia Aaron Murray 7/17, 112, 1 TD Christian Lemay 7/10, 154 yds, 1 TD Hutson Mason 9/12, 133 yds, 1 TD *GeorgiaDogs.com: "It was a great day for Georgia," Coach Mark Richt said. "I feel like everyone enjoyed the game. I thought there were a lot of offensive plays that were made today. When you look at it, the defense was scoring points, too. I thought both sides of the ball played well. It was exciting."Kentucky Maxwell Smith 29/45, 353 yds, 2 TDs, 2 Ints *UKAthletics.com: There were plenty of positive signs for the first team, both offensively and defensively. Sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith had a big day through the air, throwing for 353 yards on 29-of-45 passing. With senior quarterback Morgan Newton sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Smith shined. MissouriCorbin Berkstresser 13/20, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int *Bleacher Report: With Franklin out, all eyes were on redshirt freshman quarterback Corbin Berkstresser, and he had a solid afternoon. South Carolina Connor Shaw 6/7, 128 yds, 2 TDs Dylan Thompson 15/20, 168 yds Tanner McEvoy 8/12, 132 yds, 2 TDs *Bleacher Report: Collectively, they were 39-54 for 511 yards and six TDs. There were two INTs, but overall, the signal-callers looked good. Connor Shaw's day really stood out.Tennessee Tyler Bray 14/26, 157 yds, 1 TD *ESPN: Junior quarterback Tyler Bray also played much better than he did a year ago in a woeful spring game showing. He was 14-of-26 for 157 yards and threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to tight endMychal Rivera. Bray's added maturity this spring is what earned him the most points with his coaches. Vanderbilt Jordan Rodgers 14/29, 126 yds, 2 TDs Austyn Carta-Samuels 6/12, 47 yds Patton Robinette 3/9, 24 yds *VUCommodores.com: "Last year, we did (the Wildcat) with Zac Stacy, who did some nice things, but he also made (poor) decisions throwing," Franklin said. "With a guy (Josh Grady) that has played quarterback, I think that's going to help. He can run the ball and he's a legitimate threat to throw the ball. I think that's going to help us."
SEC West Alabama (13-0) 21.35 Auburn (9-3) 14.475 LSU (8-4) 13.4 Mississippi State (7-5) 12.563 Arkansas (8-4) 9.835 Ole Miss (4-8/5-7) 9
East Florida (11-2) 15.033 South Carolina (6-6) 10.2 Georgia (8-4) 8.811 Tennessee (5-7) 7.286 Kentucky (7-5) 6.853 Vanderbilt (2-10) -1.975
*Conference Championships are included in projections. *Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games. *Bowl games are not projected.
This is the second set of the Burnette Power Rankings called the Preseason Momentum Rankings. This type of ranking is for preseason only and will be done again next year. I did not include the formula or process of the ranking due to its complexity and I plan to add further to it next year. However, the factors that determine the team’s Momentum score and projected record include:
· Five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed.
· Schedule Strength including home and away games.
· Recruiting during the offseason.
· Returning starters and returning quarterback.
· Coaches leaving (only successful coaches that left for desired positions or necessity are factored in but retirement does not qualify.)
The five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed are the most significant factors. I found in my extensive research of the last five college football seasons’ data that recruiting is a much more significant factor than returning starters or returning quarterbacks. Next year, I plan to do more research to see the effects of the coaching carousel. However, I noticed that the most glaring impact of a coaching change is if a coach leaves a program for a better job such as Brian Kelly did when leaving Cincinnati to go to Notre Dame. The Bearcats went from being 12-0 with Kelly in 2009 to 4-8 in 2010 without him.
This blog I just posted the SEC conference and I will post the other BCS conferences this weekend. I will also try to get some of the non BCS teams posted before the season starts. The first thing you may notice is that some teams have a higher Momentum score than teams with a better projected record. The projected record takes into account home, away, and neutral site scores that I developed. Also, teams may have a negative Momentum score as in Vanderbilt.
This is a non-bias formula ranking. For example, if I went by my own bias then I would have projected Arkansas with at least 10 or more wins since they are my favorite team, but they are projected at 8-4. However, from my analysis three of their four projected losses are close and any team from the SEC with a score above eight could have a chance to play in the BCS championship. Auburn came out of no where last season to win it. Overall, there were many closely projected games in the SEC. Ole Miss' record has two different projections due to their game with BYU being projected as a tie. Alabama is the only strong favorite. A couple of wins for Florida are projected to be very close and the same with a couple of the losses for LSU. The two big out of conference games in week one for the SEC in Boise State vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. LSU are both projected losses for the SEC.
Nothing to surprising about my picks, but I may change some before the season starts.These are my BCS conference champion predictions: ACC: Florida State Contenders: Florida State is almost everyone's preseason favorite for ACC champion, but Virginia Tech is the frontrunner to win the Coastal division and the conference overall this year should be solid. Big East: West Virginia Contenders: Pitt may be the next contender, but overall the conference looks bland coming into this season and West Virginia seems to be the only strong team in the conference. Big 12: Oklahoma Contenders: The Sooners are the clear favorite, but the Big 12 does have other contenders for the 2011 championship including Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and longshot Missouri. Big 10: Wisconsin Contenders: It looks as though Ohio State should finally have a down year so that leaves the field wide open. Nebraska may be the next favorite to win championship after Wisconsin and they should win the Legends division, but plenty others have a chance including Michigan State and Michigan. Pac 12: Oregon Contenders: With Andrew Luck returning, it makes Stanford a contender, but it will be difficult for them to duplicate last season with all of their other key losses. If USC was not under a ban, then they could possibly win the championship. The Trojans may end up with one of the better records in the Pac 12. Oregon has a wealth of talent and should win another championship this year, but off the field issues are now looming over the program that may have an effect. SEC: Arkansas/ Alabama Contenders: I listed two champions for this conference since I am somewhat bias on this selection since I'm a known Hog fan. I do believe the Razorbacks can win the SEC this season, but Alabama is the clear favorite among most others. However, the SEC is stacked with competition with the West having other stout contenders in LSU and Mississippi State as well as in the East division there are contenders in South Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Florida under new coach Will Muschamp.
1. Oklahoma2. Oregon3. Alabama4. Boise State5. Stanford6. Oklahoma State7. Florida State8. Arkansas9. LSU10. South Carolina11. TCU12. Ohio State13. Wisconsin14. Nebraska15. Texas A&M16. Mississippi State17. Michigan State18. Auburn19. Notre Dame20. Missouri21. Florida22. Virginia Tech23. USC24. West Virginia 25. Georgia
The rankings are based on overall merit encompassing a variety of factors. The CFU Top 25 is not a prediction of other polls or of the season's final rankings. I will be posting the top 50 soon with further analysis and all rankings are still subject to change. I also posted these rankings on a blog at http://www.hogblog.org/.
|