1 Notre Dame at USC, Fighting Irish by 4.5
Auburn at 2 Alabama, Crimson Tide by 34
Georgia Tech at 3 Georgia, Bulldogs by 14
4 Florida at 10 Florida State, Seminoles by 7
19 Michigan at 4 (AP) Ohio State, Buckeyes by 4.5
5 Oregon at 15 Oregon State, Ducks by 12.5

Projections for rankings beginning week 13:

Projected BCS Top Five

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon*

*LSU and Kansas State on the bubble to be ranked at number five.

Other Projections: Texas A&M will be ranked seven or higher in the BCS.

Week 13 Games for BCS Projected Top Five:

Notre Dame at USC
Alabama vs Auburn
Georgia vs Georgia Tech
Florida at Florida State
Oregon at Oregon State
LSU at Arkansas

Projections for rankings beginning week 13:

BCS Projected Top Five
1. Kansas State
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Alabama 
5. Georgia
*If favorites win.

Oregon will gain some on Kansas State, but not enough to overtake the number one spot unless the Wildcats have an unimpressive performance or a loss while the Ducks keep dominating. They are currently .0177 apart, but that should narrow some after this week.  

Notre Dame is only .0101 behind Oregon in the BCS Standings; however, it does not look like they can jump to two unless a loss is accumulated by the Ducks or the Irish rack up some major late-season style points in the human polls.

Alabama and Georgia each have worthless games this weekend with both playing non-FBS teams. The Tide and Bulldogs need two of the top three to lose in order to help ensure the SEC another trip to the BCS National Championship. In the realm of college football, it is definitely possible, but right now, the SEC teams are on the outside looking in. 

BCS beware, Louisiana Tech has a chance at being a Buster. There are two ways the Bulldogs could land in a BCS Bowl- by finishing in the top 12 of the final standings or if they finish in the top 16 as the WAC champion and higher than an AQ conference champion. La Tech has a shot at being ranked higher than a Big East or Big Ten champion in the final BCS Standings before the bowls. The remaining opponents for the Bulldogs have a combined record of 16-4. Louisville currently has a .0248 lead on Louisiana Tech in the BCS so it will be a challenge.

"I think if we win out, we'll have a shot," said Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes, "I think we're going to need to point out to some people... the schedule we've played and the teams we've played." (USA Today)

There are various scenarios to determine the Big East Champion, but right now, Louisville is the highest ranked Big East school in the BCS and Rutgers has the best conference record. Louisville at Rutgers on Nov 29 looks like the most likely route for the Big East Championship unless a lot of losses occur. Cincinnati is favored to win against Rutgers this weekend so it could come down to a tiebreaker between multiple teams.

In the Big Ten, Nebraska leads the Legends and Michigan still has a chance to win the division if the Cornhuskers lose. Wisconsin has already secured the Leaders division and a spot in the Big Ten Championship.

The MAC could eventually have two teams in either the BCS or AP Top 25 rankings. Last week, Northern Illinois was on the bubble to break the BCS Top 25, but came up a little short. Instead, fellow conference foe Kent State broke the AP Top 25. The Huskies are still one of the first teams out of the BCS and AP rankings. If each team wins their final games, they could both be ranked for the MAC Championship.

Depending on weekend results, I may post updates of projections before the official BCS Standings come out and sometime after the Coaches Poll noon release time. Updates will be listed below in this post or you can bookmark the Projections page.

***Update Nov 18 Sunday 12:25 AM ET***
Projected BCS Top Five :1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Oregon*. *LSU and Kansas State on the bubble to be ranked at number five. Here is the full updated post with more information. 

***Update Nov 18 Sunday 1:24 AM ET***
ESPN Brad Edwards' BCS Top Five Projections: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Kansas State. I do not think Kansas State will be ranked fifth in the BCS, but we will know more when the human polls come out. Saturday was only the third time in BCS history that the top two teams lost in the same week. The other two times were in 2007. Here is the full updated post with more information.

***Update Nov 18 Sunday 2:46 PM ET***
Official USA Today Coaches Poll Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Oregon, and 5 Florida State. Official AP Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Ohio State, and 5 Oregon. CBS Sports Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Georgia, 4 Florida, and 5 Oregon. Palm's are the same as what I projected last night. Here is the full updated post with more information.

***Update Nov 18 Sunday 8:44 PM ET***
Official BCS Top Five: 1 Notre Dame .997, 2 Alabama .933, 3, Georgia .876, 4 Florida .843, and 5 Oregon .832. Same top five as what I projected. ESPN Brad Edwards was off on his projections last night. Here is the full updated post with more information.


Follow College Football Universe late Saturday nights and early Sunday mornings for projections before the official polls are released.

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Now, I know why BCS projections are hard to figure out!

Record 9-1
Date, Result, Opponent
Sat Sept 8, W 56-49, at Houston
Sat Sept 15, W 56-37, Rice
Sat Sept 22, W 52-24, at Illinois
Sat Sept 29, W 44-38, at Virginia
Sat Oct 6, W 58-31, UNLV
Sat Oct 13, L 59-57, Texas A&M
Sat Oct 20, W 70-28, Idaho
Sat Oct 27, W 28-14, at New Mexico State
Sat Nov 3, W 51-27, UTSA
Sat Nov 10, W 62-55, at Texas State
Sat Nov 17, Utah State
Sat Nov 24 at San Jose State
Totals: 53.4 ppg (2nd) & 36.2 papg (111th)

Important games this weekend with BCS ranking and USA Today point spread: 

1 Kansas State at Baylor, Wildcats by 10
13 Stanford at 2 Oregon, Ducks by 24
Wake Forest at 3 Notre Dame, Fighting Irish by 22
Western Carolina at 4 Alabama, No line
Georgia Southern at 5 Georgia, No line
Minnesota at 14 Nebraska, Cornhuskers by 19
Utah State at 20 Louisiana Tech, Bulldogs by 3
Iowa at 21 Michigan, Wolverines by 16.5
22 Rutgers at Cincinnati, Bearcats by 6.5 
Ohio State at Wisconsin, Badgers by 2.5 

Current Sagarin BCS Top Five 
1. Notre Dame 101.54
2. Kansas State 101.30
3. Florida 97.24
4. Georgia 95.40
5. Oregon 95.18

Other Notables:
9. Alabama 93.09
19. Nebraska 84.63
21. Michigan 82.66
30. Louisiana Tech 77.78
32. Wisconsin 76.77
38. Rutgers 75.45
42. Louisville 74.39

Current BCS Top Five
1. Kansas State .9674
2. Oregon .9497
3. Notre Dame .9396
4. Alabama .8534
5. Georgia .8328

Other Notables:
14. Nebraska .4679
19. Louisville .2159
20. Louisiana Tech .1911
21. Michigan .1665
22. Rutgers .1559

Current USA Today Coaches Poll Top Five
1. Oregon (44) 1,460
2. Kansas State (14) 1,427
3. Notre Dame (1) 1,347
4. Georgia 1,260
5. Alabama 1,243

Other Notables:
14. Nebraska 653
18. Louisville 442
19. Louisiana Tech 413
20. Rutgers 354
23. Michigan 144

Current Harris Top Five
1. Oregon (90) 2,844
2. Kansas State (23) 2,774
3. Notre Dame (1) 2,634
4. Alabama (1) 2,494
5. Georgia 2,398

Other Notables:
14. Nebraska 1,238
17. Louisville 943
20. Louisiana Tech 728
21. Rutgers 571
24. Michigan 264

Current AP Poll Top Five
1. Oregon (45) 1,485
2. Kansas State (14) 1,451
3. Notre Dame (1) 1,382
4. Alabama 1,259
5. Georgia 1,223  

Other Notables:
16. Nebraska 549
19. Louisiana Tech 374
20. Louisville 322
22. Rutgers 179
23. Michigan 135
25. Kent State 93
*AP Top 25 not a component of the BCS Standings.

Projections for rankings beginning week 12:

Projected BCS Top Five

1. Kansas State
2. Oregon
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Texas A&M*

*On the BCS and Coaches Poll top five bubble: Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU.

Projected USA Today Coaches Poll Top Four

1. Oregon
2. Kansas State
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia

Projected AP Top Five

1. Oregon
2. Kansas State
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State

There are unlikely to be any changes in the BCS top five beginning week 12 unless there are some unexpected upsets this weekend. Four out of the top five BCS teams are playing on the road, but mostly against weak competition. Week 11 opponents of Georgia, Notre Dame, and Oregon have a combined record of 7-21. 

Kansas State is the most likely of the top five to lose this weekend due to the uncertainty of QB Collin Klein and they are favored by the smallest point spread of the top five teams. 

If Texas A&M was to upset Alabama, then they would jump into the top ten of the BCS Standings and possibly the top five. But it would be a tall order for Johnny “Football” and the Aggies since they are 15.5 point underdogs playing in Tuscaloosa.  

Oregon jumping Kansas State has a real chance of happening in the long run, but is definitely not a sure thing. The computers and voters will have to keep amping up support for the Ducks over the Wildcats. 

The Ducks may be number two in the human polls, but are not a consensus two so they still have points to gain. The BCS averages goes by points computed to a decimal. The “eye test” may ultimately decide which team will be ranked second if all the top teams stay undefeated. 

“As long as they’re No. 2 in the polls, you have to like Oregon,” CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm said. “That’s what drives this thing.” (USA Today)

As far as the computers, the opponents of Oregon and Kansas State, already played and future, will play an important factor. Especially for Oregon since they currently have the strongest opponents left, but if any of them fall further in rank, it will be even closer. For week 11, the Sagarin BCS Ratings had Oregon at number seven, the lowest of the top five teams in the BCS Standings. 

Kansas State’s remaining opponents win-loss record is 17-9, but Oregon’s remaining owl is almost identical at 17-10. The Ducks do have an extra game due to the Pac-12 Championship, but the Wildcats have Texas scheduled on the same date so voters will not be swayed. 

If Notre Dame defeats USC in a couple weeks, it will hurt Oregon. The Irish would probably still not jump the Ducks. But it would make it more difficult for Oregon to overtake Kansas State at number two since it would lower the value of USC as a past opponent for the Ducks. As for the Irish, they are caught in a rankings stalemate unless a team ahead of them loses. 

The decline of USC has hurt the strength of schedule of both Notre Dame and Oregon. As far as AP Polls, no preseason number one has ended their season outside the top 20 since 1964 according to collegepollarchive.com (WSJ). The Trojans are definitely on the verge of doing so with three losses already while currently ranked 21st in the AP and 19th in the BCS. Their final three opponents have a combined record of 21-6 with two in the top 25.

If Northwestern and TCU lose this week, Northern Illinois will break the BCS Standings. BCS No. 25 Toledo already lost this week. Northwestern is ranked at 24 for the week 11 BCS Standings and TCU is just outside of the Harris Poll. Both are projected underdogs in this week’s games according to oddsmakers. Northern Illinois is off this week so it would open a spot for them to break the top 25. 

Depending on weekend results, I may post updates of projections before the official BCS Standings come out and sometime after the Coaches Poll noon release time. Updates will be listed below in this post.

***Update Nov 11 Sunday 1:25 AM ET*** Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Texas A&M*. *On the BCS and Coaches Poll top five bubble: Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU. Here is the full updated post with more information. 

***Update Nov 11 Sunday 3:30 AM ET*** ESPN Brad Edwards' Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Basically, all four -Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, and LSU- have a chance of being ranked in the BCS top five. Alabama is always a voter favorite so it would be no surprise to see them stay in the top five or higher. Here is the full updated post with more information.

***Update Nov 11 Sunday 4:15 PM ET*** Official USA Today Coaches Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Georgia, and 5 Alabama. Official AP Top Five: 1 Oregon, 2 Kansas State, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. Texas A&M did not get much love in the Coaches Poll which is astonishing since they beat the number one team on the road. In the Coaches Poll, the Aggies went from 16 to 14 after defeating Mississippi St, but only went from 14 to 10 after the Alabama win! Kansas State should still be the BCS number one, but the Aggies will probably be somewhere inbetween 5 and 10 in the BCS. CBS Sports Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Top Five: 1 Kansas State, 2 Oregon, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Alabama, and 5 Georgia. The next three ranked in his projections are Florida, LSU, and Texas A&M. Here is the full updated post with more information.

***Update Nov 11 Sunday 8:44 PM ET*** Official BCS Top 10: 1 Kansas State .967, 2 Oregon .950, 3 Notre Dame .940, 4 Alabama .853, 5 Georgia .833, 6 Florida .796, 7 LSU .733, 8 Texas A&M .662, 9 South Carolina .635, and 10 Florida State .607. Aggies did not get much respect from voters for the win in Tuscaloosa. I wonder how the computers ranked them. Top three are very tight. Notre Dame and Oregon are only .010 apart! Here is the full updated post with more information.


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