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Boy oh boy, this is the weekend the BCS pollsters and computers get tested when the final BCS Standings for 2012 are revealed. ESPN's Brad Edwards showed real uncertainty in his Bowl projections last night and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has Northern Illinois out of the BCS top 16 by just .0021! The real truth is that there is hope for the Huskies, but how much is really unknown.

The losses by BCS No. 12 Nebraska and No. 16 UCLA is what have given the Huskies hope. They also defeated BCS No. 17 Kent State in a dramatic double overtime victory for the MAC Championship on Friday. Boise State, at 20 for week 14, also has an outside chance to bust the BCS. 

Of course, news of NIU coach Dave Doeren's announced departure to NC State may hurt them in the polls some, but there were very unfortunate tragic occurrences on Saturday that kept a lot of minor news off sports tickers on most channels. However, human polls in the BCS seem to not give much credit to non-BCS teams. Since it is so close and to contradict the others, I am projecting Northern Illinois in to bust the BCS at the 16th spot, but we will know more mid-day today and officially when the BCS Standings come out Sunday night during the BCS Selection Show at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. 

Three of the top five teams in the final BCS Standings could be SEC teams, but at least three of the top six will be. Palm has Kansas State securely projected at fifth while I am not as sure of it since I have Georgia at the five spot with the Wildcats on the bubble, but Palm has been on target. 

In my opinion, I have been one of the most informative BCS analysts over the past two seasons and fairly accurate, but the most accurate is Jerry Palm. Brads Edwards is off more than Palm, but has gotten better some this season and has waffled more when he has been uncertain rather than give out wrong projections. 

I will post updates after the Coaches Poll mid-day release time and after the official BCS Standings are announced. Updates will be listed below in this post or you can bookmark the Projections page. 


***Update Dec 2 Sunday 3:20 PM ET***
Official AP top five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Ohio State, 4 Florida, and 5 Oregon. Official USA Today Coaches Poll top five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Oregon, 4 Florida, and 5 Georgia. The projected Coaches Poll top five was correct and Georgia is just 20 points behind Oregon for the fifth spot in the AP Poll top five. UCLA dropped to 19th from 16th in the Coaches Poll and Nebraska dropped to 21st from 13th while Northern Illinois is ranked 16th.  The BCS Selection Show is going to be very interesting. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has Northern Illinois projected at the 17th spot in the BCS Standings, just .0033 behind projected No.16 Nebraska and .0051 behind UCLA, projected at 15. Both Nebraska and UCLA lost Saturday with the Cornhuskers being humiliated by Wisconsin. I am sticking with my projections, but NIU may get shut out of the BCS by an extremely small margin. If the Huskies do make it, then they will be in the Orange Bowl. 

***Update Dec 2 Sunday 5:35 PM ET***
According to Bleacher Report, Northern Illinois to play Florida State in the Orange Bowl!!! I was the only expert that I know of to have them projected early this morning!!!

***Update Dec 2 Sunday 9:38 PM ET***
Official BCS top five: 1 Notre Dame, 2 Alabama, 3 Florida, 4 Oregon, and 5 Kansas State.
Official BCS Bowls: BCS National Championship- 1 Notre Dame vs 2 Alabama, Sugar Bowl- 3 Florida vs 21 Louisville, Fiesta Bowl- 5 Kansas State vs 4 Oregon, Rose Bowl- 6 Stanford vs Wisconsin, and Orange Bowl- 15 Northern Illinois vs 12 Florida State. 


Follow College Football Universe late Saturday nights and early Sunday mornings for projections before the official polls are released.

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Projections for Final BCS Rankings 

BCS Top Five
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Oregon
5. Georgia*
*Kansas State on top five bubble 


Other Projections:
16. N. Illinois
Coaches Poll Top Five 
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Florida
5. Georgia*
*Kansas State on top five bubble 



AP Top Five
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Florida
5. Georgia*
*Kansas State on top five bubble 



Palm's BCS Top Five
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Oregon
5. Kansas State
*According to CBS Sports Analyst Jerry Palm. 

Other Projections:
16. UCLA 
17. N. Illinois


Week 14 Rankings

BCS Top Five
1. Notre Dame .9979
2. Alabama .9236
3. Georgia .8911
4. Florida .8882
5. Oregon .8626


Other Notables:
6. Kansas State .7735
12. Nebraska .5393

16. UCLA .3304
20. Boise State .2030

21. N. Illinois .1936

Coaches Poll Top Five
1. Notre Dame 1,469 (56)
2. Alabama 1,398 (2)
3. Georgia 1,341 (1)
4. Oregon 1,227
5. Florida 1,265


Other Notables:
7. Kansas State 1,114
13. Nebraska 765
15. Boise State 479

16. UCLA 445
18. N. Illinois 377


Harris Top Five
1. Notre Dame 2,869 (109)
2. Alabama 2,740 (6) 
3. Georgia 2,599 
4. Oregon 2,507
5. Florida 2,435

Other Notables:
6. Kansas State 2,229
13. Nebraska 1,493
16. UCLA 919
17. Boise State 817
19. N. Illinois 619

Sagarin BCS Top Five
1. Notre Dame 96.65
2. Florida 95.74
3. Oregon 92.73
4. Georgia 92.47
5. Stanford 91.91

Other Notables:
6. Kansas State 91.74
7. Alabama 91.44
14. Nebraska 85.76

17. UCLA 83.29
40. N. Illinois 77.21
47. Boise State 73.98

AP Top Five
1. Notre Dame 1,500 (60)
2. Alabama 1,400 
3. Georgia 1,331
4. Ohio State 1,294
5. Florida 1,262


 
 
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Even though there is now more certainty about the BCS Championship, there are still plenty of BCS Bowl berths up for grabs. After Louisiana Tech lost to Utah State in week 12, the hope of a BCS Buster looked to be over, but then Kent State snuck up on the BCS. 

If the Golden Flashes win on Friday, the BCS Bowls could look a little awkward. Florida could end up playing Rutgers or Louisville instead of Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl and Florida State could end up playing Kent State instead of Rutgers or Louisville in the Orange Bowl. Kent State will receive an automatic bid if they finish in the top 16 and above another BCS automatic qualifier conference champion. There are no Big East teams ranked in the BCS Standings. The winner of Louisville at Rutgers will be the Big East automatic qualifier.

Other than losing, the only other thing that may keep Kent State out of the top 16 is if UCLA pulls off the upset against Stanford. If the Bruins beat the Cardinal, they would both most likely remain in the top 16 which would keep the Golden Flashes, currently at 17, out unless other upsets occur. 

Remember all the huffing and puffing about the rivalry game between Texas and Texas A&M being knocked off the schedule? They may play again sooner than expected since they are projected to play each other in the Cotton Bowl. There are still other scenarios. LSU could make it to the Cotton Bowl as well or Alabama if they lose in the SEC Championship. The Aggies could also play in the Capital One Bowl, but I am still projecting them to be in the Cotton Bowl. 

For the full bowl schedule and BCS selection procedures, there are links posted after the projections. All BCS Bowls are projected along with three non-BCS Bowls.


Championships and other important games this week with BCS ranking and USA Today point spread

Thursday: 
Louisville at Rutgers, Scarlet Knights by 2

Friday: 
MAC Championship, 21 Northern Illinois vs 17 Kent State, Huskies by 6.5
Pac-12 Championship, 16 UCLA at 8 Stanford, Cardinal by 10

Saturday:
11 Oklahoma at TCU, Sooners by 8
18 Texas at 6 Kansas State, Wildcats by 11
SEC Championship, 2 Alabama vs 3 Georgia, Crimson Tide by 8.5
ACC Championship, 13 Florida State vs Georgia Tech, Seminoles by 13
Big Ten Championship, 12 Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Cornhuskers by 2.5

BCS Bowls

BCS National Championship, Jan. 7, 2013 

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Projection if favorites win: 1 Notre Dame vs 2 Alabama
Projection if Georgia and other favorites win: 1 Notre Dame vs 3 Georgia
Bowl tie-in: BCS number one vs BCS number two

Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 3, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 5 Oregon vs 6 Kansas State
Bowl tie-in: Big 12 Champion vs at-large team

Sugar Bowl, Jan. 2, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 4 Florida vs 11 Oklahoma
Projection if Kent State and other favorites win: 4 Florida vs Rutgers
Bowl tie-in: SEC Champion vs at-large team 

Rose Bowl, Jan. 1, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 8 Stanford vs 12 Nebraska
Bowl tie-in: Pac-12 Champion vs Big Ten Champion

Orange Bowl, Jan. 1, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 13 Florida State vs Rutgers
Projection if Kent State and other favorites win: 13 Florida State vs 17 Kent State
Bowl tie-in: ACC Champion vs at-large team

Non-BCS Bowls

Cotton Bowl, Jan. 4, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 9 Texas A&M vs 18 Texas
Projection if Georgia and other favorites win: 2 Alabama vs 18 Texas
Bowl tie-in: Big 12 team vs SEC team

Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, 2013

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Projection if favorites win: 3 Georgia vs 19 Michigan
Bowl tie-in: SEC team vs Big Ten team 

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31, 2012

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Projection if favorites win: 7 LSU vs 14 Clemson
Bowl tie-in: ACC team vs SEC team


Full Bowl Schedule 2012-13

BCS Selection Procedures


 
 
Nothing to surprising about my picks, but I may change some before the season starts.These are my BCS conference champion predictions:
ACC: Florida State
Contenders: Florida State is almost everyone's preseason favorite for ACC champion, but Virginia Tech is the frontrunner to win the Coastal division and the conference overall this year should be solid.
Big East: West Virginia
Contenders: Pitt may be the next contender, but overall the conference looks bland coming into this season and West Virginia seems to be the only strong team in the conference.
Big 12: Oklahoma
Contenders: The Sooners are the clear favorite, but the Big 12 does have other contenders for the 2011 championship including Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and longshot Missouri.
Big 10: Wisconsin
Contenders: It looks as though Ohio State should finally have a down year so that leaves the field wide open. Nebraska may be the next favorite to win championship after Wisconsin and they should win the Legends division, but plenty others have a chance including Michigan State and Michigan.
Pac 12: Oregon
Contenders: With Andrew Luck returning, it makes Stanford a contender, but it will be difficult for them to duplicate last season with all of their other key losses. If USC was not under a ban, then they could possibly win the championship. The Trojans may end up with one of the better records in the Pac 12. Oregon has a wealth of talent and should win another championship this year, but off the field issues are now looming over the program that may have an effect.
SEC: Arkansas/ Alabama
Contenders: I listed two champions for this conference since I am somewhat bias on this selection since I'm a known Hog fan. I do believe the Razorbacks can win the SEC this season, but Alabama is the clear favorite among most others. However, the SEC is stacked with competition with the West having other stout contenders in LSU and Mississippi State as well as in the East division there are contenders in South Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Florida under new coach Will Muschamp.