Projected Top 5
*Projected to be same as last week's top five in the AP and Coaches poll.
Other Projections: Arkansas and Wisconsin will still be ranked in the top 25. Michigan State will be ranked in the top 10 in both polls since the loss by the Razorbacks will open the spot.
On the Bubble for the Top 25: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Arizona,Tennessee, BYU, and UCLA.
There were no major changes in the top five of the rankings, but there were some interesting losses in the rest. Four top 25 teams lost: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska. They will all drop significantly, but Nebraska and Oklahoma State are the most likely to drop out of the rankings because they were the lowest ranked coming into the week. Arkansas and Wisconsin will still be in the top 25, but the Razorbacks will drop the most spots and could drop out. Michigan State will also move into the top 10 with the loss by the Hogs.
I would have projected UCLA to break the top 25, but they did not receive any votes in either poll last week. Expect the Bruins to get votes this week after their win over Nebraska. Arizona also has a shot at the top 25 after the romping of Oklahoma State; the Wildcats received votes in the Coaches poll last week, but not in the AP.
Nebraska and Boise State are in competition for the last slot in the AP Poll, but the Broncos had a bye week so the inaction may keep them out; Boise State was already ranked 25 in the Coaches poll for week two. Louisiana Monroe will see some love with votes in both rankings, but I doubt they will get enough points to be in the top 25. It will be interesting to see which or if a new team breaks the top 25 this week since there are a lot of teams on the bubble.
Follow College Football Universe late Saturday nights and early Sunday mornings for projections before the official polls are released.
Projected AP & BCS Top 5:
2. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
*BCS rank depends on computer ranking.
Projected USA Today Coaches Poll Top 5:
3. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
Other AP Projections:
Houston will keep moving up to at least 11 and have a chance at the top 10.
Here are random notes on the polls with teams of emphasis in bold:Alabama
will stay in the top four of the AP Poll after their close overtime loss to LSU. They are also a lock for the top four in the Coaches Poll which should help keep them in the top four of the BCS Standings depending on their computer ranking. Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN stated that the Crimson Tide should be ranked at four and pundits on CBS said the same. However, some voters may vote them down so there is a lesser chance of a rematch with LSU. Stanford
and Oklahoma State
are still in tight competition among the polls with the Cowboys at two in the AP & BCS and the Cardinal at two in the Coaches Poll. Houston
will keep moving up in all of the rankings with two teams ranked ahead of them losing being South Carolina and Nebraska. They should be around 11 in the AP and BCS with a chance to break the top 10 in both. West Virginia
will drop out of the top 25 in all the polls by default leaving Cincinnati
the only Big East team in the rankings in which they should crack the BCS Standings after being ranked both in the Coaches and AP Polls last week.
is in control of their destiny, but it is still questionable as to who will be their national championship opponent if they do not slip up before season end.
Bleacher report had three teams with a chance to break into the top five including Oklahoma, Arkansas
, and Oregon
. Here’s a link to the article that came out earlier tonight: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/926194-bcs-rankings-2011-predicting-and-projecting-the-new-week-11-poll
AP Projected Top 5:
3. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
*The BCS top 3 is projected to be the same as the AP.
Other AP Projections:
Nebraska will be ranked in the top ten.
Houston will be ranked in the top 16.
On the AP Bubble:
Oklahoma State is on the bubble for keeping their ranking at third despite winning big against Baylor. Stanford triple overtime win at USC got a lot of attention and the Cardinal were only 8 points behind the Cowboys in the AP Poll last week.
Two more undefeated teams fell this week in Clemson and Kansas State; seven ranked teams lost. The top five teams in the AP should stay the same with Oklahoma State
still in close competition for third.
With losses by ranked teams ahead of Nebraska
including Michigan State, Kansas State, and Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers will move into the AP top 10. However, they will not quite break the BCS top 10.
Bleacher Report has Houston
as a lock for the BCS top 15, but I think it will be a close call for a top 15 ranking in all of the polls. They will at least move up to 16.
Despite a poor outing at Vanderbilt, Arkansas
will move up some in the BCS due to losses by Clemson and Kansas State; the Razorbacks will move up at least one spot if not more. They also may move up a spot in the AP, but it is too tight to call since Oklahoma
may jump them. The BCS top three teams should be the same as last week in LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma State
. Two teams lost this weekend (Clemson and Kansas State) that Bleacher Report had listed as possible teams to knock Boise State
down in the rankings, but another team they listed, Stanford
, managed to win in triple overtime against USC. The Cardinal may overtake the Broncos this week in the BCS standings. ESPN's Brad Edwards' projected top five are in the following order: LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Stanford. It will be close between the Cardinal and Broncos.
Brad Edwards is sending some mixed signals on Boise State
. On October 26, he stated “But at some point, Boise has to catch a break, right? Well, if you look closely, there are signs that this just might be the year.” In contrast on October 24, he explained why he thinks Boise State “could have peaked in the BCS Standings.” It looks like this week the Broncos ranking will hold their rank in the AP at five, but may slide this week in the BCS from four to five.
Boise State's magic BCS formula:http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7150818/how-boise-state-broncos-earn-bcs-title-berth-cfb
ESPN Audio- Brad Edwards explains why he thinks Boise State could have peaked in the BCS standings:http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7144567&s=espn
BCS Rankings Week 10: Boise State Bye Week Will Knock Broncos Down:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/916456-bcs-projections-week-10-boise-state-bye-week-will-knock-broncos-down-rankings
BCS Projections Week 10: Houston Will Crack Top 15 After Case Keenum's Heroics:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/916061-bcs-projections-week-10-houston-will-crack-top-15-after-case-keenums-heroics
AP Top 3:1. LSU2. Alabama3. Stanford
Other AP Projections:USC will be ranked in the top 25.Clemson will be in the top six.Boise State will not move to three and will be jumped by another team.
On the AP Bubble:Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Stanford all have a chance at the number three ranking even though I am projecting the Broncos will be jumped. It will most likely be a close call between Stanford and Oklahoma State.
Everyone is waiting for the Big Showdown on November 5, LSU at Alabama
. With two more undefeated teams losing, the SEC powerhouses now completely hold the spotlight for the BCS national championship race. Both teams have next week off before the play.
Chris Fowler showed reflected the media’s anticipation with this tweet to a Twitter follower after LSU’s slow start today, but they went on to pound Auburn: “Tigers don't Need style points. But u know what I meant. Kinda sluggish early. Wasn't worried. 1 vs 2 in 14 days!!”
unexpectedly lost to Texas Tech. Everything seemed to not go the Sooners way in a poor showing ending in a loss to Texas Tech that broke their 39-game home winning streak. A late surge by OU made it close at the end, but Texas Tech had control most of the game led by quarterback Seth Doege (425 yds, 4 TDs). Wisconsin
also lost in dramatic fashion to Michigan State 37-31 via a Hail Mary by Kirk Cousins to Keith Nichol. See YouTube video below.
will move to three in the USA Today Coaches Poll
while their nation high win streak extends to 15. The three spot in the AP Poll will be much closer though. Boise State, Oklahoma State,
all have a chance to fill the slot. The Broncos were fifth last week in the AP and would be the next up, but Boise State’s win over Air Force 37-26 was not near the eye popping 65-21 win of Stanford over Washington. I project Stanford will move to three in the AP Top 25, but I may be wrong since Oklahoma State has just as much of a chance at the three spot. Boise State will not move to three and will be jumped in the rankings by one of the teams or both. Clemson
will at least be in the AP top six and may challenge for number five. Clemson was tied last week in the USA Today Coaches poll with Oregon for eighth so they will at least move to six.
will break into the AP Top 25 after their 31-17 win over Notre Dame. Of course, they do not qualify for any of the BCS component rankings, but they were one of the last teams out of the AP rankings last week.
I also included a link to Bleacher Report for the BCS projected standings
even though they are now outdated due to upsets. ESPN reported Brad Edwards projected the BCS top five to be: Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State, Stanford,
. I would say that Alabama/LSU, and Oklahoma State are a lock for the BCS top three since Stanford had such a low computer ranking last week, but that will improve after their win against Washington and as the season progresses. Bleacher Report had LSU projected at number one.
Bleacher Report Projected BCS Rankings 2011: Predicting Whether the Top 25 Will Move Up or Down:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/906360-projected-bcs-rankings-2011-predicting-whether-the-top-25-will-move-up-or-down?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=BR_CrimsonTide&utm_source=twitter.com
Projected AP Top 4
The top three teams should remain the same in the AP Top 25
this week being LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma. They all had dominating wins over their opponents this weekend and the media is salivating over the almost certain number one vs. two matchup between LSU and Alabama on November 5. Wisconsin should also hold at four.
As many college football fans know, the BCS standings is comprised of computer rankings, the Harris Poll, and the USA Today Coaches Poll.
The USA Today Coaches Poll
should still have the Sooners in the top slot this week, but they are more vulnerable to losing it and the media has been heavily promoting the Bayou Bengals so there is no guarantee. The Harris Poll
currently has LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin ranked in that order; I don’t see them changing their rankings much this week.
The first BCS Standings
for 2011 will be released later today so I gathered some information about the BCS computer rankings and other projections. The number one spot in the first BCS Standings of the season is a toss-up between the same top three teams as in the other polls. Alabama was the leader in most of the computer rankings for week seven. Bleacher Report has projected the top three to be LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma in that order. I also believe that LSU is the most likely to be atop the BCS Standings later today. Brad Edwards of ESPN has LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Oklahoma State in his Tier 1. A close win for Oklahoma State over Texas and a slow first half for Oklahoma against Kansas may make them both lag behind the SEC powerhouses some more this week.
Projected BCS Rankings 2011: Updated Predictions for Oct. 16http://bleacherreport.com/articles/893895-projected-bcs-rankings-2011-updated-predictions-for-oct-16
Projected BCS Standings Mon, Oct 10, 2011http://news.yahoo.com/projected-bcs-standings-153010274.html
Ranking BCS title contendershttp://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7077162/cfb-ranking-undefeated-teams-terms-bcs-title-likelihood
BCS Computer Rankingshttp://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4765872
Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings Updatedhttp://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
Harris Poll on ESPN.comhttp://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/5
AP Top 25 and USA Today/ ESPN Coaches Poll on College Football Universe http://www.collegefootballuniverse.com/Rankings.html
Projected AP Top 3:
AP Top 25 Bubble Teams:
Wisconsin and Boise State could lose their 4 and 5 ranking respectively to Oklahoma State.
I’m putting all ranked losing teams on the bubble to drop out of the top 25 due to blow-out losses, but Florida State is the only sure one to drop out which is a no brainer. Other losing ranked teams: Texas, Auburn, and Florida.
None of the teams in the AP top 10 lost this week and only four in the whole top 25, but there still may be some shifts. Florida State is the only sure team to drop out of the rankings. ESPN College Gameday was at the Cotton Bowl for the Red River Rivalry 55 to 17 beat-down that the Sooners gave the Longhorns. As a result, Oklahoma will jump Alabama to at least second in the AP poll and will challenge LSU for the top spot, but I don’t think they will be number one. Oklahoma State is the other team most likely to move up that is ranked in the top 10 after their dominating 70-28 win over Kansas, but I’m unsure if they will jump both Boise State and Wisconsin; the Badgers were idle this week.