Projected BCS Top 5:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Virginia Tech
5. Stanford

Projected AP Top 5:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Stanford
4. Oklahoma State
5. Virginia Tech

After the recent weeks of BCS chaos, rivalry week was much more tame. Once LSU and Alabama both won this week, it became certain that their rematch will happen; the Tigers are likely to go to the BCS national championship even if they lose in the SEC championship. Arkansas was the only top 10 team to lose. Michigan will still be outside the BCS picture at 15, but they should be in the top 14 after teams ranked ahead of them lose during championship week. It will be a close call for the Wolverines.  

Projected BCS & AP Top 4:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. Stanford*

Other BCS projections:
Notre Dame will be ranked in the top 25.
Houston will be ranked in the top 10.
Clemson will drop out of the top 10.

*On the Bubble: Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State are on the bubble for the BCS top five and have a chance at the four spot over Stanford due to the volatility in the rankings as the result of numerous ranked teams losing. 

I wrote a blog during the off season in which I called the SEC West division the Dirty South of college football because it’s just plain nasty. Week 13 will prove my point with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas as the top three ranked teams in college football. What makes it nastier is that Arkansas plays at LSU and Alabama at Auburn to finish up the regular season for SEC football.   

Number four is up for grabs this week with four losses by top 10 teams leaving the slot open (Oklahoma State, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Clemson). I am projecting Stanford to fill the slot with Virginia Tech as the most likely to move up next, but Oklahoma State may stick around in the top five due to the computer rankings or just outside of it. However, all three have a chance at four. 

Notre Dame will be back in the BCS top 25 after appearing in the USA Today Coaches and AP Top 25 polls coming into this week (note AP poll is not part of the BCS). Florida State, Texas and Southern Mississippi all may drop out of the BCS top 25 leaving a spot open for the Fighting Irish.

Arkansas trounced Mississippi State ensuring that LSU will have another high hurdle to jump for the SEC championship. In an awkward situation featuring a tiebreaker between Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas, if Arkansas beats LSU and is ranked number one in the nation, then they still may not get into the SEC championship if Alabama is ranked second. Here is the final three team tiebreaker according to the SEC Digital Network:   

“The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.”

Here are the highest to lowest BCS ranking scenarios for Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama to make it to the SEC championship if LSU loses to Arkansas and all three teams are tied in the SEC standings:

Arkansas gets in:
Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama. 
LSU, Arkansas, and Alabama. 

LSU gets in:
LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas. 

Alabama gets in:
Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU.  
Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU.

Note that Arkansas, Alabama, or LSU would not have to qualify for the SEC championship to make it to the BCS National Championship. The probability of an SEC rematch in the BCS is now much more likely unless Alabama is upset by Auburn and there is an upset in the SEC championship. 

Projected AP & BCS Top 5:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4. *Oregon
5. *Oklahoma
* The Ducks and Sooners are both in very close competition for fourth in the BCS so it could go either way, but Oregon will be a solid four in the AP.

Stanford’s 17 game and Boise State’s 65 regular home season game winning streak both came to an end this weekend. A total of seven BCS ranked teams lost this week: Stanford, Boise State, Penn State, Texas, Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Cincinnati.

Oregon and Oklahoma will be in tight completion for the four spot in the BCS. The Ducks already led Oklahoma in the Harris Poll and USA Today Coaches’ Poll coming into week 11, but the computer rankings had them much lower. They should get a boost in the computers for the win at Stanford which will make it close. However, Oregon will be a solid four in all the polls.

TCU will easily be back in the AP and BCS Top 25 after their clutch win against Boise State on the Blue and they were already ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll for week 11. Chris Fowler of ESPN tweeted about the game, “Wow! Bus erupts with crazy TCU and Boise State final few minutes.. Huge drama (and awful kicking) and @davidpollack47 called 2pt winner!”

There is plenty of BCS talk going on about Houston. However, Houston may not move up in the BCS this week depending on how much Boise State and Stanford drops. But next week ESPN will be in Houston for College Gameday which will surely give the Cougars their most publicity of the season. Stewart Mandel's of SI.com tweet reflected this, “Most likely destination for Houston if it wins out: Sugar Bowl. Alabama-Houston?”    

Here are a couple more projections for week 12: Cincinnati will drop out of the AP and BCS rankings this week after their loss to West Virginia. There is a strong chance that no Big East team will be ranked in the polls or BCS for week 12 unless West Virginia sneaks in. Arkansas will move up to sixth in the BCS standings with both Boise State and Stanford losing this weekend.

Projected AP & BCS Top 5:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Stanford
4. Alabama*
5. Boise State
*BCS rank depends on computer ranking.

Projected USA Today Coaches Poll Top 5:
1. LSU
2. Stanford
3. Oklahoma State
4. Alabama
5. Boise State

Other AP Projections:
Houston will keep moving up to at least 11 and have a chance at the top 10.

Here are random notes on the polls with teams of emphasis in bold:

Alabama will stay in the top four of the AP Poll after their close overtime loss to LSU. They are also a lock for the top four in the Coaches Poll which should help keep them in the top four of the BCS Standings depending on their computer ranking.  Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN stated that the Crimson Tide should be ranked at four and pundits on CBS said the same. However, some voters may vote them down so there is a lesser chance of a rematch with LSU. 

Stanford and Oklahoma State are still in tight competition among the polls with the Cowboys at two in the AP & BCS and the Cardinal at two in the Coaches Poll. 

Houston will keep moving up in all of the rankings with two teams ranked ahead of them losing being South Carolina and Nebraska. They should be around 11 in the AP and BCS with a chance to break the top 10 in both. 

West Virginia will drop out of the top 25 in all the polls by default leaving Cincinnati the only Big East team in the rankings in which they should crack the BCS Standings after being ranked both in the Coaches and AP Polls last week. 

LSU is in control of their destiny, but it is still questionable as to who will be their national championship opponent if they do not slip up before season end.

Bleacher report had three teams with a chance to break into the top five including Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Oregon. Here’s a link to the article that came out earlier tonight: 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/926194-bcs-rankings-2011-predicting-and-projecting-the-new-week-11-poll