Team, Record, True Wins
LSU 13-1, 585
Oklahoma State 12-1, 570
Alabama 12-1, 461
Oklahoma 10-3, 392
Team, Fair Score
Oklahoma State .28634
Team, BOW, Total Wins
Oklahoma State 12-1, 92, 607
LSU 13-1, 97, 588
Alabama 12-1, 79, 464
Oklahoma 10-3, 71, 453
Team, LOL, Total Losses
Oklahoma 11, 61
Oklahoma State 7, 37
LSU 1, 3
Alabama 1, 3
Above are statistics listed for the fairest ranking system in college football. I have literally been working on this for over a year. I am as close as ever to perfecting it and creating a system of standings in college football that could determine automatic qualifiers. It is all based on who they beat and who they lose to.
The Fair Ranking System has been modified to include losses as part of the newly developed true wins. Listed above are a few of the top teams from the 2011 season calculated according to the new system. The modified version will be used for the 2012 season. Calculations will be done early mid-season and at the end of the season. The following is the explanation of the Fair Ranking System and the new changes to it. Some of this is from a previous article I posted.
The following statistical measures are included in the Fair Ranking System. I listed the beaten opponents' wins (BOW) and total wins for each team. Total wins consist of the team's wins, beaten opponents' wins, and beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins. I also listed the lost to opponents' losses (LOL) and total losses. Total losses consist of team's losses, lost to opponents' losses, and lost to opponents' of lost to opponents losses. Total wins minus total losses equals true wins. True wins is the best statistic listed to determine what team has earned their rank and for automatic qualifiers.
The formula for the Fair Score is as follows:
Team's win percent times beaten opponents' win percent times beaten opponents' of beaten opponents win percent = Fair Score.
Other calculation notes: Games against non-FBS teams were counted and each non-FBS team was designated a record of 1-10 in order to give some value to the game. Also, if an FBS team is winless at the end of the season, then their record will still show one win when calculating a team's fair score in order to give value to all wins. Losses of beaten opponents against the team being calculated were not included in the win-loss percentage of beaten opponents.
Using Oklahoma as an example, here is how the Fair Ranking System is calculated:
Oklahoma Sooners 10-3
Team wins: 10
Beaten opponents' wins (BOW): 71 (Tulsa 8, Florida State 9, Missouri 8, Ball State 6, Texas 8, Kansas 2, Kansas State 10, Texas A&M 7, Iowa State 6, and Iowa 7.)
Beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins: 372
Tulsa beat Tulane 2, North Texas 5, UAB 3, Rice 4, SMU 8, UCF 5, Marshall 7, and Utep 5.
Florida State beat ULM 4, Charleston Southern 1, Duke 3, Maryland 2, NC State 8, Boston College 4, Miami 6, Florida 7 and Notre Dame 8.
Missouri beat Miami OH 4, Western Illinois 1, Iowa State 6, Texas A&M 7, Texas 8, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, and North Carolina 7.
Ball State beat Indiana 1, Buffalo 3, Army 3, Ohio 10, Central Michigan 3, and Eastern Michigan 6.
Texas beat Rice 4, BYU 10, UCLA 6, Iowa State 6, Kansas 2, Texas Tech 5, Texas A&M 7, and California 7.
Kansas beat McNeese St 1, and Northern Illinois 11.
Kansas State beat Eastern Kentucky 1, Kent St 5, Miami 6, Baylor 10, Missouri 8, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, Texas A&M 7, Texas 8, and Iowa State 6.
Texas A&M beat SMU 8, Idaho 2, Texas Tech 5, Baylor 10, Iowa St 6, Kansas 2, and Northwestern 6.
Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 1, Iowa 7, Connecticut 5, Texas Tech 5, Kansas 2, and Oklahoma St 12.
Iowa beat Tennessee Tech 1, Pitt 6, ULM 4, Northwestern 6, Indiana 1, Michigan 11, and Purdue 7.
Total Wins: 453
Team losses: 3
Lost to opponents' losses (LOL): 11 (Lost to Texas Tech 7, Baylor 3, and Oklahoma State 1.)
Lost to opponents' of lost to opponents losses: 47
Texas Tech lost to Texas A&M 6, Kansas State 3, Iowa State 7, Texas 5, Oklahoma State 1, Missouri 5, and Baylor 3.
Baylor lost to Kansas State 3, Texas A&M 6, and Oklahoma State 1.
Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State 7.
Total Losses: 61
True Wins: 392
453 total wins minus 61 total losses equals 392 true wins.
Fair Score: (10/13)(71/117)(372/822)= .21125172
(wins/games)(bow/games)(bow's of bow/games)= fair score
Here are the SEC football home stadium attendance stats from 2011. The loyalty of SEC fans are shown in the numbers as even some of the losing teams had good attendance, but that is partially due to opposing fans traveling.
Six schools averaged 100 percent capacity or better with Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn close behind at 98 percent or more. In all, 11 teams were over 92 percent and only three were under 90 being Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. Alabama had the highest average attendance with 101,821 and there were eight teams with an average over 79,000.
The new additions to the SEC vastly differ in attendance. Texas A&M packed in an average of 87,183 with a 105 percent capacity (1st in conference). I am not sure how they got the extra five percent in, but who knows, they are the Aggies. Missouri lagged behind with an average attendance of 62,095 at 87.5 percent capacity (13th in conference). Only Vanderbilt had a lower percent.
1. Alabama 101,821
2. Tennessee 94,642
3. LSU 92,868
4. Georgia 92,613
5. Florida 89,061
6. Texas A&M 87,183
7. Auburn 85,792
8. South Carolina 79,131
9. Arkansas 66,990*
10. Missouri 62,095
11. Kentucky 60,007
12. Ole Miss 56,488
13. Mississippi State 55,949
14. Vanderbilt 32,873
*Two home games played at Little Rock in lower capacity stadium.
1. Texas A&M 105
2. Mississippi State 101.57
3. Florida 100.58
4. LSU 100.35
5. Arkansas 100.22
6. Alabama 100
7. Georgia 99.86
8. South Carolina 98.61
9. Auburn 98.1
10. Ole Miss 93.24
11. Tennessee 92.37
12. Kentucky 88.32
13. Missouri 87.5
14. Vanderbilt 82.65
Attendance averages and capacity percents are according to the 2012 SEC Media Guide.
BCS Busters Watch List
1. Boise State Broncos, Mountain West
2. BYU Cougars, Independent
3. FIU Panthers, Sun Belt
4. Ohio Bobcats, MAC
5. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, Sun Belt
6. Houston Cougars, Conference USA
7. Arkansas State Red Wolves, Sun Belt
8. Northern Illinois Huskies, MAC
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, Conference USA
10. Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Conference USA
BCS Buster Game to Watch:
Thursday, September 20, BYU at Boise State
The BCS Busters Watch List was previously posted on the 2012 preseason guide, but this is the first summary and ranking. The teams are not ranked as the best teams (see College Football Preseason Guide
), but as the teams most likely to bust the BCS. A couple teams have been added since I first posted the watch.
If a team is to bust the BCS this year, then it may be more of a surprise than past history. The BCS has only been busted seven times by four teams being Utah, TCU, Boise State, and Hawaii in which two of the teams are now in BCS conferences.
With Boise State
losing quarterback Kellen Moore, the usual favorite Broncos are less likely to be a threat to get into a BCS bowl in 2012. However, coach Chris Petersen is possibly the best in the nation and has garnered double digit wins every season at Boise. BYU
has one of the best chances to be a BCS Buster this season. They bring back 18 starters and are a proven winning program. A crucial game at Boise State could shape what direction the Cougars' season will go. If they can beat the Broncos and win the Holy War rivalry with Utah, it may come down to their game against fellow independent and BCS darling, Notre Dame.
FIU, Houston, and Ohio all have somewhat manageable schedules. Ohio
has the most favorable being ranked 123 according to the CFU strength of schedule
and they return star quarterback Tyler Tettleton (3,964 total yards & 38 total TDs in 2011). The Bobcats play the depleted Penn State Nittany Lions to start the season and it gets easier after that. FIU
has a highly touted defense and return enough experience to make a run, but have yet to break double digit wins in their short history. Houston
would have to overachieve to bust the rankings with the losses of impact players and a head coach, but the 2012 schedule does give them hope. Arkansas State
made the list, but are most likely a couple years away from busting the BCS or whatever the prevalent ranking is by then. The Red Wolves still have a shot at the conference championship; they did sweep the Sun Belt last season. If coach Gus Malzahn can lead the Wolves to a miracle road win at Nebraska and run through the conference, who knows what could happen, but a bowl season is more probable than a top 25 ranking. Louisiana Lafayette
also has a good shot at the Sun Belt Championship, but a tough out of conference schedule against Oklahoma State and Florida will probably keep them from moving up to a high enough ranking. Northern Illinois
had a great season in 2011 that ended with 11 wins and a bowl victory. The departure of impact quarterback Chandler Harnish decreases their chances though to continue the success. They do have a rather weak schedule other than their opener against Iowa.
A team that could make an early run but fall out late is Tulsa
. The Golden Hurricanes schedule is set up for them to have a chance to go on a mid-season winning streak after they play Iowa State. If they defeat the Cyclones, Tulsa could be 8-0 before playing at Arkansas and finishing up conference play versus Houston, UCF, and SMU. The final four games could determine a berth in the Conference USA championship and possibly a jump in the polls. Southern Miss
rounds out the BCS Busters Watch List. The Golden Eagles are coming off a highly successful season, but 2012 will be tougher with the loss of impact players and a difficult schedule. They play non-conference opponents Nebraska, Louisville, and Boise State. UCF
would have made the watch, but their recent bowl ban makes them ineligible. The Knights made Phil Steele's most improved list for 2012.
UCF does have a stingy defense, but underachieved last season.
Projected AP Top 10
7. Florida State
8. South Carolina
On the Bubble: West Virginia is the only other team that could make the top 10. Arkansas, Michigan, and South Carolina are teams projected in the top 10 that could drop out. Auburn, Florida, and Notre Dame are all on the bubble for the top 25.
Wisconsin will be ranked at 12.
Kansas State will be in the top 20.
Texas will be in the top 20.
The AP Top 25 Preseason Poll will be released August 18, but here are some projections to give you an idea of what the rankings will be almost two weeks ahead of time.
The number one ranking in the AP Preseason Top 25 will be a close call between USC
. The Trojans have received a good deal of off-season media hype (number one in ESPN poll
) and their recent acquisition of Penn State transfer Silas Redd has kept the program in the news as of late. I previously stated that LSU would most likely be the preseason number one
, but I now believe Redd may have tilted the voters just enough in favor of the Trojans. However, I would not be too surprised to see the Bayou Bengals at the top of the rankings.
LSU is the USA Today Coaches Top 25 Preseason number one team, but barely. The Tigers edged out Alabama
by only four points for the top slot and just 15 ahead of number three USC. The Crimson Tide actually received the most number one votes, but will probably be third in the AP since I expect USC and LSU to receive the most top votes. Of Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma
, and Oregon
, I am sure that two of the four teams will make up the rest of the AP top five with Oregon the most definitive.
Of the teams projected in the top 10, Arkansas, Michigan,
and South Carolina
are the teams that could fall outside of it. West Virginia could make it, but other than the possibility of them, it should be the same teams as the top 10 of the Coaches Poll just in different order. Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith is also the Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year according to media that cover the conference. Wisconsin may have a longshot chance to break the top ten, but I doubt they will with the negative publicity recently involving the attack on Montee Ball. They will probably be ranked around 12 like in the Coaches Poll and will definitely be in the top 15.
For other projections, Kansas State
should get slightly more credit in the AP than the Coaches and fall at least in the top 20. Texas
will also be ranked somewhere in the top 20. Florida
and Notre Dame
are both on the bubble for the top 25. They each are very well known programs, but both also loom with uncertainty at quarterback going into the 2012 season. Auburn
is another team on the bubble to break the rankings.
Last season, I did ranking projections on Saturday nights/ Sunday mornings between midnight and 2 a.m. CST for weeks 5 through 14. Most of the time, I projected the top five teams or close to it with other predictions for teams in top 25 rankings (projected BCS weeks 10 through 14). I correctly projected teams to be ranked in the top five 94 percent of the time and was correct 95 percent on other projections. I was also correct 81 percent of the time on the exact team rankings predicted in the top five (projected rankings here
Here is the top 10 for the USA Today Coaches Poll and projections from other sites earlier this year:
| |USA Today Coaches Poll
1. LSU (18)
2. Alabama (20)
3. USC (19)
7. Florida State
9. South Carolina
| |PhilSteele.com AP Projection
9. Florida State
10. South Carolina
Bleacher Report AP Prediction 1. USC
7. Florida State
10. West Virginia
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