ACC
Atlantic
Florida State (10-3) 12.22
NC State (7-5) 9.35
Clemson (4-8) 8.3
Maryland (5-7) 7.616
Boston College (4-8) 7.014
Wake Forest (2-10) -3.97
Coastal
Virginia Tech (13-0) 15.86
North Carolina (11-1)15.63
Miami (8-4) 12.38 *does not include recent suspension of players.
Georgia Tech (8-4) 8.56
Duke (4-8) 5.324
Virginia (1-11) -.917

Virginia Tech is projected to win the ACC by beating Florida State in a close game. North Carolina has a high Momentum score and a projected record of 11-1, but the firing of Butch Davis may have a strong effect which is not calculated in the score.

Big Ten
Legends
Nebraska (9-3) 16.15
Michigan State (9-3) 15.5
Iowa (11-2) 14.33
Northwestern (8-4) 10.647
Michigan (9-3) 3.514
Minnesota (2-10) -.134
Leaders
Ohio State (12-1) 14.975
Wisconsin (10-2) 14.22
Penn State (8-4) 13.125
Illinois (8-4) 8.423
Indiana (3-9) .0095
Purdue (2-10) -1

The Momentum rankings show that Ohio State should still have another good season despite losing head coach Jim Tressel and quarterback Terrelle Pryor, but Iowa is projected to beat them in the Big Ten championship game.

Big East
Pitt (9-3) 13.656
Uconn (9-3) 10.643
West Virginia (11-1) 10.559
Cincinnati (11-1) 10.537
South Florida (6-6) 7.766
Syracuse (3-9) 3.35
Rutgers (3-9) 2.722
Louisville (3-9) .317

The Big East is projected to be a three way tie between Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. Two of Pitt’s losses are to out of conference teams and they are more likely to finish lower in the BCS standings than West Virginia or Cincinnati since they are projected with more losses.

Pac 12
North
Stanford (11-1) 21.885
Oregon (13-0) 21.093
California (7-5)6.386
Washington (3-9) 4.943
Oregon State (4-8) 4.146
Washington State (1-11) -6.102
South
Utah (12-1) 16.7
USC (9-3) 12.033
Arizona (7-5) 10.091
Arizona State (6-6) 5.712
Colorado (2-11) 1.887
UCLA (3-9) 1.817

Utah’s score may be off since they just switched conferences, but we will see. Either way Utah should have a chance at winning the Pac-12 South. Oregon is scored to win the Pac-12 championship despite Stanford having a higher Momentum score and playing Oregon at home during the season, but Oregon is a good road team and Stanford has not established a strong enough home field advantage over the last five season so the Ducks are very tightly projected to beat the Cardinal.

Other teams
TCU (11-1) 20.933
Boise State (12-0) 19.5
UCF (13-0) 15.04
Temple (13-0) 14.451
Notre Dame (7-5) 11.056
BYU (8-4/7-5) 9.067

Boise State and TCU should dominate the Mountain West. Since the game between the Broncos and Horned Frogs is going to be on the blue turf, Boise State is projected to beat TCU in a tight one.

UCF and Temple are a couple of surprise non-BCS teams. A few of Temple’s wins are very close. Penn State and Maryland are a couple of teams that Temple is scored to beat which may not be too unrealistic since the Owls only lost to the Nittany Lions 22-13 last season and they beat a BCS team in Uconn. The defensive trend of Temple is another factor that helps their Momentum score. UCF is trending in the right direction in terms of wins and points allowed as well as bringing in another good recruiting class. The Knights have a schedule that could lead them to double digit wins again if not the projected 13.

Notre Dame’s score and projected record shows another year of transition for Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish. Sometimes people criticize the strength of Notre Dame’s schedule, but it is stouter than critics claim. This season they are scheduled to play three Big Ten, three ACC, two Pac-12, two Big East, one MWC, and one independent team with three teams ranked in the top 25.

The Momentum Rankings show that BYU should be either 8-4 or 7-5. Their game against Ole Miss is too close to call. Their first season as an independent should be good, but not great. They still need to gain more momentum to beat their rival Utah in the Holy War.

*Conference Championships are included in projections.
*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.

Big 12
Oklahoma State (12-0) 18.771
Oklahoma (11-1) 17.408
Missouri (10-2) 13.285
Texas (9-3) 11.947
Texas Tech (8-4) 10.921
Baylor (5-7) 7.966
Texas A&M (6-6/5-7) 6.64
Kansas State (7-5/6-6) 5.299
Iowa State (2-10) 2.014 
Kansas (1-11) -1.7

*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.

Oklahoma State is projected to have an undefeated season, but their games against Oklahoma and Missouri are projected to be very close. Texas A&M at Kansas State is too close to call and that is why there are two projections for both teams. Texas A&M is possibly the most overrated team in college football numerically speaking. Their rankings in the preseason polls must be mostly due to the "eye test" and speculation.

SEC
West
Alabama (13-0) 21.35
Auburn (9-3) 14.475
LSU (8-4) 13.4
Mississippi State (7-5) 12.563
Arkansas (8-4) 9.835
Ole Miss (4-8/5-7) 9

East
Florida (11-2) 15.033
South Carolina (6-6) 10.2
Georgia (8-4) 8.811
Tennessee (5-7) 7.286
Kentucky (7-5) 6.853
Vanderbilt (2-10) -1.975

*Conference Championships are included in projections.
*Games against FCS teams were not projected. However, teams were given a win for FCS games to show a better depiction of the projected season record, but this does not help in accuracy since FCS teams do win some games.
*Bowl games are not projected.

This is the second set of the Burnette Power Rankings called the Preseason Momentum Rankings. This type of ranking is for preseason only and will be done again next year. I did not include the formula or process of the ranking due to its complexity and I plan to add further to it next year. However, the factors that determine the team’s Momentum score and projected record include:

·         Five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed.

·         Schedule Strength including home and away games.

·         Recruiting during the offseason.

·         Returning starters and returning quarterback.

·         Coaches leaving (only successful coaches that left for desired positions or necessity are factored in but retirement does not qualify.)

The five year trends for wins, points scored, and points allowed are the most significant factors. I found in my extensive research of the last five college football seasons’ data that recruiting is a much more significant factor than returning starters or returning quarterbacks. Next year, I plan to do more research to see the effects of the coaching carousel. However, I noticed that the most glaring impact of a coaching change is if a coach leaves a program for a better job such as Brian Kelly did when leaving Cincinnati to go to Notre Dame. The Bearcats went from being 12-0 with Kelly in 2009 to 4-8 in 2010 without him.

This blog I just posted the SEC conference and I will post the other BCS conferences this weekend. I will also try to get some of the non BCS teams posted before the season starts. The first thing you may notice is that some teams have a higher Momentum score than teams with a better projected record. The projected record takes into account home, away, and neutral site scores that I developed. Also, teams may have a negative Momentum score as in Vanderbilt.

This is a non-bias formula ranking. For example, if I went by my own bias then I would have projected Arkansas with at least 10 or more wins since they are my favorite team, but they are projected at 8-4. However, from my analysis three of their four projected losses are close and any team from the SEC with a score above eight could have a chance to play in the BCS championship. Auburn came out of no where last season to win it. Overall, there were many closely projected games in the SEC. Ole Miss' record has two different projections due to their game with BYU being projected as a tie. Alabama is the only strong favorite. A couple of wins for Florida are projected to be very close and the same with a couple of the losses for LSU. The two big out of conference games in week one for the SEC in Boise State vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. LSU are both projected losses for the SEC.

Each season I will have formula based computer rankings. For this season, I have two sets of the Burnette Power Rankings called the Fair Ranking System and the Preseason Momentum Rankings. The Fair Standings listed below are the final standings from the 2010-11 season for the Fair Ranking System. I will be posting them during the 2011 season after week five, pre-bowl season, and post bowl season.

The formula for the Fair Ranking System is as follows:
Team's win% X beaten opponents' win % X beaten opponents' of beaten opponents win%= Fair Score. 

Games against FCS teams were counted and each FCS team was designated a record of 1-10 in order to give some value to the game. Also, if a FBS team is winless at the end of the season, then their record will still show one win when calculating a team's fair score in order to give value to all wins. Losses of beaten opponents against the team being calculated were not included in the win-loss percentage of beaten opponents.

When I added up all the opponents' win-loss records before converting the fractions to percentages, I noticed other statistical measures to include. I listed the beaten opponents' wins (BOW) and total wins for each team. Total wins consist of the team's wins, beaten opponents' wins, and beaten opponents' of beaten opponents wins.
The full 120 team Fair Standings will be posted on a separate page on College Football Universe. The Preseason Momentum Rankings will be released shortly.  

There may be some hidden Heisman contenders in a couple premier quarterbacks that were injured last year, but return this season. I’m talking about Dan Persa of Northwestern and Case Keenum of Houston. 

Persa is a less hidden candidate now due to the recent Heisman billboard campaign put forth by Northwestern. Persa injured his Achilles’ tendon against Iowa Nov. 13 last season. Case Keenum has much less hype coming into this season, but Cougar fans and college football followers know he can put up big numbers. Keenum injured his right knee early last season against UCLA on Sept. 18 and was granted a sixth year of eligibility. 
 
If both the QBs recover successfully from their injuries, then they should have big seasons once again. Of the two, Persa would have the better chance since Keenum is known for being a “system” quarterback. In 2009, Keenum passed for 5,671 yards and 44 touchdowns with a 70.3 completion percentage while leading the Cougars to a 10-4 record. In 2010, Dan Persa played in 10 games(7-3) for Northwestern in which he had a 73.5 completion percentage while passing for 258.1 yards per game with 15 passing touchdowns to only four interceptions and rushed for 519 yards with nine rushing touchdowns.